000
AXNT20 KNHC 030022
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT WED MAY 02 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN 
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE 
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION 
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS... 
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2315 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N10W 3N20W 4N33W EQ41N TO THE COAST 
OF BRAZIL NEAR 3S45W.  A LARGE AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO 
STRONG CONVECTION IS MOSTLY INLAND OVER W AFRICA FROM 4N-12N 
BETWEEN 4W-14W.  WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 
2N-5N BETWEEN 13W-20W.  ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE 
REMAINDER OF THE AXIS.    

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A 1017 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE NEAR 
31N85W.  THE ENTIRE GULF OF MEXICO IS EXPERIENCING FAIR WEATHER 
WITH 10-15 KT RETURN FLOW PRIMARILY FROM THE SE.  IN THE UPPER 
LEVELS... A DOMINATE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED INLAND OVER NEW 
MEXICO NEAR 33N106W MOVING E.  UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE E OF THE 
CENTER IS PRODUCING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION OVER INLAND 
TEXAS FROM 28N-34N BETWEEN 97W-101W MOVING E TOWARDS THE GULF OF 
MEXICO.  THE GULF OF MEXICO ACTUALLY HAS NWLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW.  
EXPECT THE CONVECTION OVER TEXAS TO BRUSH THE NW GULF AND MOVE 
TO LOUISIANA BY 24 HOURS.  EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE 
REMAINDER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO.   

CARIBBEAN SEA...
BRISK 15-25 KT TRADEWINDS ARE NOTED THROUGHOUT THE CARIBBEAN 
SEA.  ISOLATED SHOWERS DOTS THE SEA.  NEXRAD RADAR OVER PUERTO 
RICO SHOWS ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM 17N-20N BETWEEN 65W-69W.  A 
SURFACE TROUGH N OF HISPANIOLA IS PRODUCING WIDELY SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION OVER HISPANIOLA AND CUBA.  ELSEWHERE... THE 
ITCZ EXTENDS FROM N COLOMBIA TO COSTA RICA ALONG 9N PRODUCING 
CLUTTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 7N-12N BETWEEN 
70W-85W TO INCLUDE PORTIONS OF THE SW CARIBBEAN SEA.  IN THE 
UPPER LEVELS... AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER E VENEZUELA 
NEAR 5N62W.  MOST OF THE SEA HAS SWLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW.  A BAND 
OF BROKEN TO OVERCAST HIGH CLOUDS IS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN 
SEA AND CENTRAL AMERICA FROM 5N-20N BETWEEN 72W-86W.  EXPECT 
LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.    

ATLANTIC...
A DOMINATE SURFACE TROUGH IS N OF HISPANIOLA ALONG 20N73W 
27N73W.  WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER 
HISPANIOLA...THE SRN BAHAMAS...AND CUBA FROM 21N-25N BETWEEN 
68W-80W.  THIS TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DEEPEN TO A 1011 MB LOW 
NEAR 27N72W IN 48 HOURS.  ANOTHER WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS OFF THE 
COAST OF FLORIDA ALONG 25N80W 30N79W.  SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE 
WITHIN 30 NM OF THE TROUGH.  THIS TROUGH IS FORECAST TO 
DISSIPATE WITHIN 24 HOURS.  A 1028 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE 
CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 33N33W.  THIS HIGH IS PRODUCING MOSTLY 
FAIR WEATHER OVER THE ATLANTIC FROM 20N-30N BETWEEN 15W-65W. IN 
THE UPPER LEVELS...A RIDGE IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC N OF 20N 
BETWEEN 60W-80W.  WLY FLOW IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE 
OCEAN.         

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FORMOSA