000 AXNT20 KNHC 011044 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT TUE MAY 01 2007 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS... WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1015 UTC. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N10W 4N17W 2N28W 3N43W CROSSING THE EQUATOR NEAR 50W. SCATTERED/NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120/150 NM OF THE AXIS FROM 21W-33W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 90 NM ALONG THE COAST OF AFRICA FROM 3W-10W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... STRONG UPPER LOW IS MOVING NE OVER TEXAS/OKLAHOMA AND IS GENERATING SOME STRONG THUNDERSTORMS OVER NE TEXAS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE GULF WATERS WITHIN 90 NM OF LINE FROM 22N96W TO OVER LOUISIANA NEAR 30N93W. THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL GULF IS NARROWING WITH THE AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE YUCATAN CHANNEL/W CUBA TO SE LOUISIANA. BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER THE W ATLC EXTENDS ACROSS FLORIDA INTO THE NE GULF N OF 26N E OF 87W. SURFACE RIDGE FROM THE W ATLC EXTENDS ACROSS FLORIDA AS WELL WITH A 1018 MB HIGH ALONG THE COAST OF OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE NEAR PENSACOLA. THIS RIDGE COUPLED WITH DRY AIR IS GIVING THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF CLEAR SKIES AGAIN THIS MORNING WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS BANKING ALONG THE TEXAS/NE MEXICO COAST DUE TO RETURN FLOW AROUND THE SURFACE HIGH. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE GULF FOR MOST OF THE WEEK. CARIBBEAN SEA... GENERALLY WESTERLY ZONAL UPPER FLOW DOMINATES THE CARIBBEAN WITH AN UPPER E/W RIDGE OVER SOUTH AMERICA INTO THE E PACIFIC REGION. REMNANT SURFACE TROUGH REMAINS IN THE W CARIBBEAN EXTENDING ALONG 85W S OF 20N TO INLAND OVER HONDURAS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/WIDELY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 150 NM E OF THE TROUGH AXIS. LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND A 1008 MB LOW INLAND OVER COLOMBIA ARE GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SW CARIBBEAN S OF 11N TO INLAND OVER COLOMBIA/PANAMA AND TO THE COAST OF COSTA RICA. OTHERWISE... DRY AIR AND CLEAR SKIES DOMINATE THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN WITH MODERATE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS USHERING IN SOME LOW LEVEL ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE NE CARIBBEAN N OF 15N E OF 65W TO OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND N OF 17N E OF 75W TO INCLUDE HISPANIOLA...PUERTO RICO...AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS. ATLANTIC... BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE W ATLC N OF 25N W OF 53W WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT N OF THE REGION AND A SURFACE TROUGH ENTERING THE REGION NEAR 32N54W ALONG 26N70W JUST E OF THE TURKS AND CAICOS TO THE N COAST OF HAITI PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS E OF THE TROUGH N OF 26N. AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE E ATLC NEAR 32N10W W ALONG 30N25W TO AN UPPER LOW IN THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 27N40W COVERING THE AREA N OF 24N. THIS UPPER TROUGH REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN SOME VERY DRY AIR THAT DOMINATES MOST OF THE ATLC AND IS NOT PRODUCING ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY. BROAD SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE ATLC WITH A GENERAL WEAKNESS IN THE AREA OF THE SURFACE TROUGH ANCHORED IN THE W BY A 1020 MB HIGH S OF BERMUDA NEAR 31N64W AND IN THE E BY A 1029 MB HIGH SW OF THE AZORES. THIS SURFACE RIDGE COUPLED WITH THE DRY AIR IN PLACE IS GIVING MOST OF THE ATLC FAIR WEATHER AGAIN THIS MORNING. $$ WALLACE