000 AXNT20 KNHC 302338 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT MON APR 30 2007 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS... WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N10W 3N25W 2N35W...CROSSING THE EQUATOR NEAR 43W INTO NE BRAZIL. CLUSTERS OF MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 1N-6N BETWEEN 16W-22W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS OVER LIBERIA AND SIERRA LEONE IN AFRICA AND ACROSS NE BRAZIL. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE ELSEWHERE. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... WEAK SFC RIDGING REMAINS IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE GULF WATERS THIS EVENING WITH A 1019MB HIGH PRES CENTER NEAR 28N89W. THIS FEATURE IS PRODUCING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS...AND SEAS MOSTLY BELOW 4 FT ACROSS THE AREA. AS WAS THE CASE YESTERDAY...SAT IMAGERY SHOWS SOME CLOUDINESS IN THE FAR WRN GULF WITH LOW LEVEL SE FLOW. THESE WINDS ARE TRANSPORTING A HUMID AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS INTO TEXAS. AS A RESULT...A CLUSTER OF MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED OVER SE TEXAS WITH THE POTENTIAL OF SEVERE WEATHER CONDITIONS. ALOFT...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS ENTERING THE W GULF. THE BASE OF THIS TROUGH REACHES CENTRAL MEXICO WHERE THERE ARE SOME CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. THIS UPPER TROUGH WILL BE EXTENDED ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TOMORROW EVENING. WV IMAGERY SHOWS VERY DRY OVER THE ERN GULF AND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. SFC HIGH PRES OVER THE N GULF WILL SLIDE E OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...ALLOWING THE RETURN FLOW TO INCREASE IN THE WRN PORTION OF THE GULF. CARIBBEAN SEA... LIGHT STREAMER SHOWERS OR CLOUD LINES HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE WINDWARD/LEEWARD ISLANDS UNDER THE TRADE WIND FLOW. THE SAN JUAN DOPPLER RADAR IS DETECTING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS OVER PUERTO RICO...THE US/UK VIRGIN ISLANDS AND THE REGIONAL COASTAL WATERS. PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE EMBEDDED IN THE PREVAILING MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WIND FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THOSE ISLANDS FROM TIME TO TIME. A SFC TROUGH FROM THE ATLC EXTENDS OVER THE E BAHAMAS/CUBA AND IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED TSTMS. ANOTHER SFC TROUGH GOES FROM THE CAYMAN ISLANDS TO THE ATLC COST OF NICARAGUA. THIS FEATURE IS ALSO PRODUCING AN AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS VERY CLOSE TO CABO GRACIAS A DIOS. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...GENERALLY WLY ZONAL FLOW DOMINATES THE BASIN WITH A FLAT RIDGE EXTENDING E TO W OVER NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA/CENTRAL AMERICA. HIGH PRES N OF THE AREA WILL KEEP SIMILAR TRADE WIND REGIME DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. ATLANTIC... WEAK SFC HIGH PRES IS BUILDING INTO THE THE WRN ATLC BEHIND THE SFC TROUGH...REMNANT OF A FRONTAL TROUGH THAT ENTERS THE AREA NEAR 30N60W AND CONTINUES SW TO THE E BAHAMAS/CUBA NEAR 20N77W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED TSTMS ARE WITHIN 60NM EITHER SIDE OF THE SFC TROUGH. ONCE AGAIN...VISIBLE IMAGERY ALSO CONTINUES TO SHOW THE SMOKE DISPERSING THROUGH FLORIDA AND THE WRN ATLC ASSOCIATED WITH THE WILDFIRES IN SE GEORGIA. OTHERWISE THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC DISCUSSION AREA IS DOMINATED BY THE SRN PERIPHERY OF A 1030 MB SFC HIGH LOCATED S OF THE AZORES NEAR 35N32W. THIS IS PRODUCING WIDESPREAD FAIR WEATHER AND MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES E OF 50W. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE WRN ATLC WHILE STRONGER/LARGER HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL OF THE E-CENTRAL ATLC. WEAK CONFLUENCE BETWEEN THESE TWO HIGHS IS SUPPORTING THE AFOREMENTIONED SFC TROUGH THAT IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY DISSIPATE. $$ GR