000 AXNT20 KNHC 291732 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT SUN APR 29 2007 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS... WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1700 UTC. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N10W 3N20W 2N30W EQ38W AND INTO NE BRAZIL NEAR 3S45W. ISOLATED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS OFF THE COAST OF LIBERIA FROM 3N-7N BETWEEN 8W-16W. SCATTERED MODERATE IS FROM 4N-7N BETWEEN 20W-28. NUMEROUS MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG ALSO NOTED FROM 2N-5N BETWEEN 31W-40W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE GULF REMAIN FAIRLY QUIET THIS AFTERNOON WITH SFC RIDGING DOMINATING. AS OF 29/1500 UTC A 1024 MB HIGH WAS LOCATED OFF THE LOUISIANA COAST NEAR 29N92W. ASSOCIATED CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT N TO NE WINDS...AND SEAS GENERALLY BELOW 3' ARE NOTED OVER THE GULF WATERS E OF 90W. SCATTERED CLOUD COVER IS OVER MUCH OF THE WRN GULF WITH A BIT MORE MOISTURE AVAILABLE AROUND THE S AND SW PORTION OF THE SFC RIDGE. A WEAK SFC TROUGH HAS CONTINUED TO MOVE W THROUGH THE SW GULF...NOW THROUGH THE BAY OF CAMPECHE ALONG 22N93W 18N93W. E/ESE WINDS TO 20 KT NOTED E OF THE TROUGH TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. THESE WINDS HAVE ALLOWED SHORT PERIOD WIND WAVES TO BUILD TO THE 3-5' RANGE IN THE ERN BAY OF CAMPECHE...WHICH IS GENERALLY THE ONLY SPOT IN THE GULF THAT HAS SEAS OVER 3' AND WINDS GREATER THAN 15KT. UPPER FLOW REMAINS NEARLY ZONAL WHILE MID LEVEL FLOW IS MORE ANTICYCLONIC. NW FLOW AROUND THE ERN PORTION OF THIS MID LEVEL RIDGE IS ADVECTING VERY DRY AIR INTO THE NE GULF. SFC HIGH WILL DRIFT SLOWLY E IN THE NRN GULF OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...KEEPING CONDITIONS FAIRLY TAME THROUGH EARLY WEEK. MOISTURE CONTENT WILL CONTINUE TO BE GREATEST WRN PORTION WITH SE FLOW. CARIBBEAN SEA... MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE FLOW CONTINUES TO ADVECT TYPICAL PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WWD ACROSS THE BASIN. THE MOST CONCENTRATED OF THESE PATCHES IS BETWEEN NICARAGUA AND JAMAICA WHERE SOME LOW LEVEL CONFLUENCE IS NOTED. SIMILAR AREAS OF LOW LEVEL CLOUDINESS/SHOWERS EMBEDDED IN THE TRADE FLOW ARE NOTED NEAR PUERTO RICO...WINDWARD ISLANDS...AND ERN CARIB. ANTICYCLONIC FLOW DOMINATES MUCH OF THE UPPER LEVELS OVER THE CARIB AROUND A RIDGE THAT EXTENDS WNW THROUGH NRN SOUTH AMERICA. SOME WEAK UPPER TROUGHING EVIDENT IN THE FAR NE PORTION WHICH MAY BE ENHANCING SOME OF THE AFOREMENTIONED TRADE SHOWERS. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS EXPECTED OVER THE CARIB THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS HIGH PRES BUILDS N OF THE AREA. ATLANTIC... WEAK SFC HIGH PRES IS BUILDING INTO THE THE WRN ATLC BEHIND THE FRONTAL TROUGH THAT ENTERS THE AREA NEAR 31N72W AND CONTINUES SW TO NEAR THE CENTRAL COAST OF CUBA NEAR 22N78W. SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH A FEW ISOLATED TSTMS ARE WITHIN 250NM E OF THE TROUGH...AND ALSO IN THE PREFRONTAL CONFLUENT ZONE NOTED N OF 25N BETWEEN 61W-68W. THIS ACTIVITY ALSO BEING SUPPORTED BY THE UPPER DIFFLUENT ZONE BETWEEN THE UPPER TROUGHING OFF THE EAST COAST AND RIDGING EXTENDING NE THROUGH THE CENTRAL ATLC. ON THE CONTRARY...VERY DRY/STABLE AIR IS BEING ADVECTED INTO THE WRN ATLC IN WAKE OF THE DEEP LAYER TROUGHING. THE OTHER INTERESTING FEATURE IN THE WRN ATLC IS THE SMOKE PLUME AFFECTING N AND CENTRAL FLORIDA AND ADJACENT ATLC WATERS...DOWNSTREAM FROM THE LARGE WILDFIRES IN SE GEORGIA. OTHERWISE THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC DISCUSSION AREA IS DOMINATED BY THE SRN PERIPHERY OF A 1030 MB SFC HIGH SW OF THE AZORES NEAR 36N36W. THIS IS PRODUCING WIDESPREAD FAIR WEATHER AND MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES E OF 55W. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE WRN ATLC WHILE MUCH STRONGER/LARGER HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL OF THE ERN ATLC. CONFLUENCE BETWEEN THESE TWO HIGHS WILL SUPPORT A SLOWLY DYING FRONTAL TROUGH NE OF THE SE BAHAMAS OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO. $$ WILLIS