000
AXNT20 KNHC 291045
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SUN APR 29 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN 
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE 
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION 
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS... 
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1045 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N10W 3N20W 3N30W 1N40W 1N50W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 3N-6N BETWEEN 18W-27W... 
FROM 3N-5N BETWEEN 30W-35W...AND FROM EQ-2N BETWEEN 36W-40W.     
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS ALONG THE NE COAST OF 
BRAZIL FROM 1S-4N BETWEEN 47W-51W. 

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A 1021 MB HIGH IS CENTERED ALONG THE COAST OF LOUISIANA NEAR 
29N89W PRODUCING 10-15 KT ANTICYCLONIC SURFACE WINDS AND FAIR 
WEATHER.  A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA ALONG 
21N91W 14N93W DRIFTING W.  SCATTERED SHOWERS LINGER WITHIN 60 NM 
OF THE TROUGH AXIS.  ELSEWHERE... A PATCH OF SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER S TEXAS FROM 28N-30N BETWEEN 97W-104W 
MOVING N.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS... AN UPPER LEVEL ZONAL FLOW 
DOMINATES THE ENTIRE GULF OF MEXICO.   BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS AND 
SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE COVERS THE NW GULF N OF 24N AND 
W OF 92W.  STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF OF 
MEXICO.   EXPECT ZONAL UPPER LEVEL FLOW TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 
24 HOURS.  ALSO EXPECT THE SURFACE HIGH TO REMAIN IN PLACE FOR 
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  RETURN FLOW OVER NE MEXICO AND S TEXAS MAY 
PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS.      

CARIBBEAN SEA...
15-20 KT TRADES COVER THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN SEA.  PATCHES OF 
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE NOTED OVER THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 68W.  
SIMILAR SHOWERS ARE SEEN OVER PANAMA AND COSTA RICA FROM 7N-11N 
BETWEEN 76W-85W.  ALSO...A 1008 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER N 
COLOMBIA NEAR 9N74W.  SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS 
INLAND FROM 5N-8N BETWEEN 73W-76W.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...THE 
CARIBBEAN IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN E/W UPPER LEVEL RIDGE 
WITH AXIS ALONG 10N BETWEEN TRINIDAD AND COSTA RICA...PRODUCING 
WLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW N OF 10N.  SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE 
WITH BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS ARE OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN S OF 12N AND W 
OF 75W.  THE REMAINDER OF THE SEA HAS STRONG SUBSIDENCE ALOFT.  
EXPECT MORE RAIN AND SHOWERS OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND CENTRAL 
AMERICA DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS DUE TO THE TRADES. 

ATLANTIC...
A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC AND N BAHAMAS ALONG 
31N73W 24N79W MOVING E.  SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 NM OF 
THE TROUGH.  A 1031 MB HIGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 
35N37W THAT DOMINATES THE ENTIRE BASIN.  MOSTLY ELY SURFACE FLOW 
WITH FAIR WEATHER IS NOTED ACROSS THE ATLANTIC FROM 10N-25N FROM 
AFRICA TO THE CARIBBEAN SEA.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS... A SHARP 
TROUGH IS JUST ENTERING THE W ATLANTIC FROM GEORGIA.  A RIDGE IS 
FURTHER E BETWEEN 50W-75W N OF 20N.  A TROUGH IS OVER THE 
CENTRAL ATLANTIC N OF 20N BETWEEN 35W-50W.  AN EMBEDDED UPPER 
LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC NEAR 18N40W.  A 
BROAD RIDGE IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC N OF 20N E OF 35W.

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FORMOSA