000 AXNT20 KNHC 270535 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT FRI APR 27 2007 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS... WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N11W 3N20W 3N30W 3N40W EQ50W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS OFF THE COAST OF W AFRICA FROM 3S-3N BETWEEN THE PRIME MERIDIAN AND 8W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FURTHER W FROM 2N-6N BETWEEN 12W-16W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 3N-5N BETWEEN 28W-31W...AND FROM 2N-4N BETWEEN 33W-38W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO ALONG 30N86W 24N92W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 NM OF THE FRONT. A PREFRONTAL SQUALL LINE IS OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND THE NE GULF OF MEXICO ALONG 31N84W 26N87W MOVING SLOWLY E. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 30 NM OF THE SQUALL LINE. A WEAK 1016 MB HIGH HAS FORMED OVER THE NW GULF...W OF THE FRONT...PRODUCING 15 KT ANTICYCLONIC WINDS AND FAIR WEATHER. THE SE GULF...E OF THE FRONT...ON THE OTHER HAND HAS 10-15 KT SELY FLOW. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE W GULF OF MEXICO W OF 90W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE NW GULF HOWEVER BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS AND SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER MEXICO AND S TEXAS AND IS ABOUT TO MOVE E OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. A SHARP TROUGH IS OVER THE E GULF OF MEXICO WITH AXIS ALONG 83W MOVING E. EXPECT THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO FLATTEN OUT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND PRODUCE WLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW. ALSO EXPECT THE SURFACE COLD FRONT TO EXTEND FROM SOUTH CAROLINA TO CENTRAL FLORIDA TO THE SE GULF WITH CONVECTION WITHIN 24 HOURS. CARIBBEAN SEA... A LARGE AREA OF RAIN AND SHOWERS IS OVER THE N CARIBBEAN FROM THE VIRGIN ISLANDS TO E CUBA MOVING W WITH THE TRADEWINDS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS ACCUMULATING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF PUERTO RICO...HISPANIOLA...AND E CUBA. ELSEWHERE...A 1008 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER N COLOMBIA NEAR 10N94W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 7N-11N BETWEEN 71W-76W TO INCLUDE LAKE MARACAIBO. ALSO...CENTRAL AMERICA FROM PANAMA TO GUATEMALA HAS AREAS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS MOVING W WITH THE TRADEWINDS. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A TROUGH IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA BETWEEN 70W-80W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE CENTRAL AND WRN CARIBBEAN E OF 70W PRODUCING WLY ZONAL FLOW. EXPECT MORE RAIN AND SHOWERS OVER THE CENTRAL AND WRN CARIBBEAN TO INCLUDE CENTRAL AMERICA DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ATLANTIC... A 1025 MB HIGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 30N60W. A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS SW TO W CUBA. A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC ALONG 32N32W 26N50W 23N60W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE FRONT. A 1025 MB HIGH IS SE OF THE AZORES ISLANDS NEAR 36N24W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... A RIDGE IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC N OF 20N AND W OF 70W. A TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC N OF 20N BETWEEN 50W-70W. A BROAD RIDGE IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC N OF 20N E OF 50W. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC NEAR 13N40W. CYCLONIC FLOW IS FROM 5N-20N BETWEEN 30W-50W. $$ FORMOSA