000
AXNT20 KNHC 261729
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT THU APR 26 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN 
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE 
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION 
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS... 
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1645 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N12W 4N20W 3N40W INTO S AMERICA 
NEAR 2N52W. CLUSTERS OF MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 2N-5N 
BETWEEN 16W-20W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 
60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 33W-44W. A CLUSTER OF 
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS ALONG THE BRAZILIAN COAST 
N OF 2N W OF 50W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS THE NW GULF FROM SE 
LOUISIANA TO TAMPICO MEXICO NEAR 23N98W. THIS FRONT IS 
GENERATING A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING FROM 
THE MISSISSIPPI DELTA INLAND THROUGH ALABAMA. THE FRONT IS 
FORECAST TO STEADILY WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE IN THE NEXT 24-48 
HOURS. MODERATE S-SW WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL WEAKEN AND 
BECOME N-NE FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. A SHARP UPPER LEVEL 
TROUGH IS MOVING EWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF. STRONG SWLY WINDS 
AHEAD OF THE TROUGH ARE TRANSPORTING UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE/HIGH 
CLOUDS ACROSS THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND THE EAST GULF INTO THE W 
ATLC. STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR DOMINATES THE WEST GULF. 

CARIBBEAN...
A STATIONARY FRONT OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC CLIPS THE NE CARIBBEAN 
W OF PUERTO RICO NEAR 18.5N63W. AS A RESULT...SHOWER ACTIVITY 
CONTINUES TO DEVELOP OVER PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS. 
ALOFT...AN UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN WITH THE 
AXIS EXTENDING NNE ACROSS CUBA AND THE BAHAMAS. UPPER AIR 
DIFFLUENCE OVER CENTRAL AMERICA IS SUPPORTING CONVECTIVE 
ACTIVITY S OF 12N BETWEEN PANAMA AND THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. THE 
TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS SOUTHWARD INTO 
THE EAST PACIFIC. STRONG SWLY FLOW BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND THE 
TROUGH IS ADVECTING UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE S AND W 
CARIBBEAN. DRY UPPER AIR DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN. 
HIGH PRES N OF THE AREA IS GENERATING MODERATE TO STRONG 
EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN.  

ATLANTIC...
A BROAD DEEP LAYERED TROUGH COVERS THE CENTRAL ATLC WITH THE 
ASSOCIATED FRONT NOW STATIONARY FROM 31N38W EXTENDING 
SOUTHWESTWARD TO THE VIRGIN ISLANDS. A BAND OF MULTILAYERED 
CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH 
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC. E OF THIS FRONT...A 
1027 MB HIGH LOCATED WELL N OF THE AREA WITH RIDGE AXIS 
EXTENDING OVER THE E ATLC GENERATING MODERATE TRADE WINDS. IN 
ADDITION...A RIDGE HAS BUILT BEHIND THE FRONT COVERING THE W 
ATLC TO OVER FLORIDA ANCHORED BY A 1024 MB SFC HIGH SE OF 
BERMUDA NEAR 30N61W. ALOFT...AN UPPER LOW IS IN THE E TROPICAL 
ATLC SW OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS NEAR 11N37W. OTHERWISE...DRY 
AIR IS FIRMLY IN PLACE OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC EAST OF 
50W.    

$$
RJW