000
AXNT20 KNHC 261047
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT THU APR 26 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN 
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE 
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION 
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS... 
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1045 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N10W 4N20W 1N40W CROSSING THE 
EQUATOR AT 44W THEN INTO NE BRAZIL NEAR 2S50W.  CLUSTERS OF 
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 1N-6N BETWEEN 
14W-21W.  ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 3N-4N BETWEEN 
33W-44W.  WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 2N-4N 
BETWEEN 48W-52W.  

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT IS OVER THE NW GULF OF MEXICO FROM SE 
LOUISIANA TO TAMPICO MEXICO FROM 30N91W TO 21N99W.  ISOLATED 
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 NM OF THE FRONT.  A PREFRONTAL SQUALL LINE 
IS OVER S MISSISSIPPI AND THE N GULF OF MEXICO ALONG 32N88W 
29N90W MOVING SLOWLY E.  WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS 
FROM 30N-32N BETWEEN 87W-90W.  HIGH PRESSURE RETURN FLOW IS 
NOTED OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...E OF THE SQUALL 
LINE...PRODUCING 10-15 KT SELY FLOW AND FAIR WEATHER.  IN THE 
UPPER LEVELS... A SHARP TROUGH IS OVER THE W GULF OF MEXICO WITH 
AXIS ALONG 93W MOVING E.  STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE GULF OF 
MEXICO W OF 87W.  A RIDGE IS OVER THE E GULF OF MEXICO E OF 
88W.  A BAND OF UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER THE E GULF E OF 
87W.  EXPECT AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO ADVECT OVER THE W GULF OF 
MEXICO AND BE W OF 88W WITHIN 24 HOURS.  ALSO EXPECT THE SURFACE 
COLD FRONT TO EXTEND FROM N FLORIDA TO W CUBA WITH CONVECTION 
WITHIN 24 HOURS.      

CARIBBEAN...
THE TAIL END OF A STATIONARY FRONT IS JUST N OF THE LEEWARD 
ISLANDS FROM 19N60W TO 19N68W.  SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE N OF 18N 
AND E OF 72W TO INCLUDE THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF HISPANIOLA AND 
PUERTO RICO.  THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA HAS 15-25 KT 
EASTERLY TRADEWINDS.  SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE NOTED OVER THE SW 
CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA FROM E PANAMA TO E HONDURAS 
BETWEEN 77W-86W.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A RIDGE IS OVER THE NW 
CARIBBEAN SEA N OF 15N AND W OF 70W.  UPPER LEVEL WLY ZONAL FLOW 
COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE SEA.  EXPECT MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS 
OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA DURING THE NEXT 24 
HOURS.        

ATLANTIC...
A 1025 MB HIGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 30N61W.  A RIDGE AXIS 
EXTENDS SW TO S FLORIDA.  A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE CENTRAL 
ATLANTIC ALONG 32N36W 29N40W 27N47W.  A STATIONARY FRONT 
CONTINUES TO N OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS TO 19N60W.  SCATTERED 
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE FRONTS.  A 1026 MB HIGH IS JUST 
E OF THE AZORES ISLANDS NEAR 37N23W.  A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS SW TO 
26N40W.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS... A RIDGE IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC N 
OF 20N AND W OF 75W.  AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED FURTHER E 
NEAR 27N66W.  CYCLONIC FLOW IN STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS FROM 17N-35N 
BETWEEN 60W-75W.  A BROAD RIDGE IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC N OF 20N 
E OF 60W.  ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE TROPICAL 
ATLANTIC NEAR 12N35W.  CYCLONIC FLOW IS FROM 5N-20N BETWEEN 
28W-45W.        

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FORMOSA