000 AXNT20 KNHC 250559 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT WED 25 2007 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA... CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA... NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0415 UTC. ...THE ITCZ... 8N11W 1N20W...CROSSING THE EQUATOR AT 24W...AND THEN CONTINUING TO 1S30W 2S36W...AND INTO NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL NEAR 5S42W. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 2N TO 4N BETWEEN 2W AND 6W...AND FROM 3N TO 4N BETWEEN 7W AND 10W. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS/LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE ELSEWHERE SOUTH OF 6N BETWEEN 10W AND 50W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE IN THE COASTAL WATERS FROM FRENCH GUIANA TO GUYANA BETWEEN 54W AND 57W. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR 14N27W TO 7N32W TO 8N38W TO 8N44W. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR/SUBSIDENCE IS WITHIN 300 NM NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF 14N25W 7N32W...AND WITHIN 500 NM NORTH OF 7N32W 8N44W ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... A DEEP LAYER TROUGH IS DIGGING SOUTHWARD IN THE CENTRAL U.S.A. IT IS PUSHING A MASS OF MOISTURE/CLOUDS/PRECIPITATION FROM EASTERN TEXAS AND EASTERN MEXICO INTO THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO NOW WEST OF 90W. THE DEEPER THE TROUGH IN THE U.S.A. MEANS THE MORE AMPLIFIED THE RIDGE IN THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO EAST OF 90W. THE COLD FRONT WITH THE DEEP LAYER TROUGH STILL RUNS FROM NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS TO JUST EAST OF THE TEXAS BIG BEND. A SURFACE RIDGE RUNS FROM THE NORTHEASTERN GULF TO THE LOWER TEXAS COAST. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS TO LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 18N IN MEXICO TO 28N IN THE WATERS OF THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO BETWEEN 94W AND 100W. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... A STATIONARY FRONT-BECOMING-SURFACE TROUGH REMAINS FROM THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER TO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA. THIS FEATURE HAS BEEN ANALYZED ON THE SURFACE MAPS SINCE 21/1800 UTC. IT HAS BEEN IN AND AROUND PUERTO RICO EVER SINCE THE FRONT/ TROUGH SYSTEM DEVELOPED. A FLASH FLOOD WARNING WAS ISSUED EARLIER THIS MORNING FOR THE AREAS OF HATILLO AND ARECIBO. MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN CONTINUES ACROSS THESE AREAS. THE STATIONARY FRONT CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR 21N59W TO 19N63W TO 18N65W. THE SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUES FROM 18N65W TO 17N68W TO 15N75W TO 15N78W. SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 17N69W 20N63W 22N58W. POSSIBLE SHOWERS FROM 14N TO 18N BETWEEN 70W AND 80W IN SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS ALONG THE WESTERN END OF THE TROUGH. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ALONG 9N60W 10N70W 11N80W. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS ARE CURVING FROM COLOMBIA AND VENEZUELA... INTO THE SOUTH CENTRAL WATERS...AND EASTWARD. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SUPPORTS THE ATLANTIC COLD FRONT FROM A 1017 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 33N49W TO 29N50W 24N54W TO 21N59W. A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES FROM 21N59W TO THE VIRGIN ISLANDS. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE THROUGH 32N42W TO 27N50W 24N54W TO 22N60W. A FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS PASSING OVER THE MADEIRAS ISLANDS TO THE CANARY ISLANDS. A COLD FRONT GOES FROM THE MADEIRAS ISLANDS TO 28N26W TO 27N32W. THE FRONT IS STATIONARY FROM 27N32W TO 28N39W. A WARM FRONT CONTINUES FROM 28N39W AND THE STATIONARY FRONT... TO 29N43SW...AND TO THE 33N58W DEVELOPING GALE. THE FAR-EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM THE LAST DAYS HAS BECOME SEPARATED...OR SPLIT APART OVER AFRICA. THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE TROUGH IS COMPLETELY OVER ALGERIA AND MALI. THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE TROUGH NOW EXTENDS FROM A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR 17N17W TO 12N25W TO 9N34W 9N40W. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR/SUBSIDENCE IS FROM 10N TO 20N BETWEEN 20W AND 50W. $$ MT