000 AXNT20 KNHC 231347 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT MON APR 23 2007 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA... CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA... NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0945 UTC. ...THE ITCZ... 6N10W 3N20W 2N30W 1N40W...CROSSING THE EQUATOR AT 46W...AND THEN CONTINUING INTO NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL NEAR 1S52W. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 30 NM TO 45 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 2N10W 4N12W 5N14W...FROM 2N TO 4N BETWEEN 24W AND 28W... FROM 3N TO 4N BETWEEN 36W AND 38W...FROM THE EQUATOR TO 2N BETWEEN 39W AND 41W...AND FROM BRAZIL NORTHWARD WITHIN 45 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 3S41W 2S43W 1N44W 4N45W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 3N TO 5N BETWEEN 49W AND 51W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO WEST OF 90W. THE FLOW FROM 90W EASTWARD IS EITHER NORTHWESTERLY OR NORTHERLY...DUE TO THE PROXIMITY OF A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO-TO-CARIBBEAN SEA MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THE TROUGH GOES FROM BERMUDA TO THE EASTERN BAHAMAS NEAR 24N75W AND FINALLY TO WESTERN JAMAICA. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR/SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE GULF WATERS...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NORTH OF 20N WEST OF 60W. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1026 MB ATLANTIC OCEAN HIGH PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 32N78W TO CENTRAL TEXAS. THE FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 72 HOURS IN THE GULF OF MEXICO IS FOR EASTERLY SURFACE WINDS AND NO COLD FRONT. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... A STATIONARY FRONT ENTERS THE AREA FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN PASSING THROUGH 19N60W...ACROSS THE NORTHERN LESSER ANTILLES... TO 16N70W. A SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUES FROM 16N70W TO 14N73W TO 13N75W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ALONG 10N FROM 80W EASTWARD BEYOND 60W INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS/LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 30 NM TO 45 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE STATIONARY FRONT/TROUGH EAST OF 70W...BECOMING ISOLATED WITHIN 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE SYSTEM WEST OF 70W. THIS PRECIPITATION COVERS PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND SURROUNDING WATERS. BROKEN LOW TO MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE SHOWERS FROM 16N80W 17N70W 18N68W TO 20N...COVERING HISPANIOLA AND JAMAICA AND SURROUNDING WATERS. THE REST OF THE AREA IS FILLED WITH THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL WEST TO NORTHWEST WIND FLOW OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-CARIBBEAN SEA TROUGH. SOME OF THIS FLOW IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TROUGH...AND SOME IS RELATED TO WESTERLY WINDS MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES NEAR BERMUDA...AND THEN TO THE BAHAMAS NEAR 24N75W...AND FINISHES NEAR 18N79W JUST OFF THE WESTERN TIP OF JAMAICA. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR/SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NORTH OF 20N WEST OF 60W. THIS TROUGH SUPPORTS AN ATLANTIC OCEAN STATIONARY FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N33W TO 29N40W 24N50W TO 19N60W AND BEYOND INTO THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS IN BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS ARE WITHIN 120 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 20N63W 22N60W 27N50W BEYOND 32N38W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE GOES FROM 19N42W TO 26N38W BEYOND 32N34W. A SURFACE RIDGE IS TO THE EAST OF THE STATIONARY FRONT...FROM A 1023 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 32N23W TO 24N37W TO 15N50W. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR 31N3W ALONG THE MOROCCO/ALGERIA BORDER TO 23N12W IN MAURITANIA TO THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR/SUBSIDENCE IS WITHIN 180 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH. $$ MT