000 AXNT20 KNHC 230623 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT MON APR 23 2007 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA... CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA... NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0345 UTC. ...THE ITCZ... 6N10W 4N20W 3N30W 1N40W...AND THEN CONTINUING FROM THE EQUATOR TO 1N BETWEEN 40W AND 53W. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 4N TO 6N BETWEEN 4W AND 6W...AND FROM 1N TO 3N BETWEEN 42W AND 44W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS TO LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ELSEWHERE SOUTH OF 7N BETWEEN 10W AND 50W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW GOES FROM MEXICO...CURVES ACROSS TEXAS AND LOUISIANA...INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE MEXICO RIDGE IS HEADING TOWARD THE BASE OF A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT STARTS IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR BERMUDA...GOES TO THE BAHAMAS NEAR 23N74W...AND FINISHES NEAR 19N75W JUST SOUTH OF CUBA. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR/SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE GULF WATERS...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NORTH OF 20N WEST OF 60W. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1026 MB 33N77W HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TO THE LOWER-TO-MIDDLE TEXAS COAST. THE FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 72 HOURS IN THE GULF OF MEXICO IS FOR EASTERLY SURFACE WINDS AND NO COLD FRONT. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... A STATIONARY FRONT ENTERS THE AREA FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN PASSING THROUGH 20N61W TO THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND 17N67W JUST SOUTH OF PUERTO RICO. A TROUGH CONTINUES FROM 17N67W TO 16N70W TO 14N73W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 30 NM TO 45 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 16N72W 17N68W 18N65W BEYOND 20N60W. THIS INCLUDES SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER AND AROUND PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS. BROKEN LOW TO MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE SHOWERS FROM 17N TO 20N BETWEEN 76W AND 79W...AND NORTH OF 16N79W 17N70W 18N68W BETWEEN 68W AND 79W...COVERING HISPANIOLA. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ALONG 10N FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN THROUGH 60W TO 80W. THE REST OF THE AREA IS FILLED WITH THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL WEST TO NORTHWEST WIND FLOW. SOME OF THIS FLOW IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TROUGH...AND SOME IS RELATED TO WESTERLY WINDS MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS...FROM WEAKENING/DISSIPATING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...COVER VENEZUELA AND COLOMBIA NORTH OF 6N BETWEEN 66W AND 78W. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES NEAR BERMUDA...AND THEN TO THE BAHAMAS NEAR 23N74W...AND FINISHES NEAR 19N75W JUST SOUTH OF CUBA. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR/SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NORTH OF 20N WEST OF 60W. THIS TROUGH SUPPORTS AN ATLANTIC OCEAN STATIONARY FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 30N37W TO 24N50W TO 20N60W AND BEYOND INTO THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS IN BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS ARE WITHIN 120 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 20N65W 22N60W 26N50W BEYOND 32N38W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE GOES FROM 19N42W TO 26N38W BEYOND 32N34W. A SURFACE RIDGE IS TO THE EAST OF THE STATIONARY FRONT...FROM A 1025 MB 34N20W HIGH PRESSURE CENTER TO 27N30W 20N44W TO 14N51W. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR 31N3W ALONG THE MOROCCO/ALGERIA BORDER TO 23N12W IN MAURITANIA TO THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR/SUBSIDENCE IS WITHIN 180 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH. $$ MT