000 AXNT20 KNHC 201817 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT FRI APR 20 2007 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA... CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA... NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...THE ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N13W 4N20W 1N40W EQ50W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM EQ-4N BETWEEN 21W-32W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 2N-5N BETWEEN 32W-44W...AND FROM 1S-2N BETWEEN 44W-50W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... HIGH PRESSURE SURFACE RIDGING COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER AND LIGHT WINDS. 10KT NE FLOW IS NOTED OVER THE E GULF E OF 90W WHILE 10 KT E FLOW IS OVER THE W GULF W OF 90W. AS OF 1500 UTC A WEAK COLD FRONT IS PRESENTLY TRAVERSING CENTRAL FLORIDA AND THE NE GULF OF MEXICO ALONG 28N80W 28N85W 30N92W MOVING SE. NO SIGNIFICANT SHOWERS ARE NOTED ALONG THE FRONT. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A RIDGE DOMINATES THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH AXIS ALONG 90W. SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS N OF 22N. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND CUBA. EXPECT...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO FLATTEN OUT AND PRODUCE WLY BY 24 HOURS. EXPECT THE COLD FRONT TO DISSIPATE OVER S FLORIDA. ALSO EXPECT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RETURN FLOW TO PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER NE MEXICO AND S TEXAS W OF 96W WITHIN 24 HOURS. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL HAVE FAIR WEATHER. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... AS OF 1500 UTC A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT IS TRAVERSING THE NE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TO BELIZE ALONG 20N74W 17N80W 17N87W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 NM OF THE FRONT. A 1009 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER N VENEZUELA NEAR 11N70W. 10-15 KT WINDS ARE NOTED N OF THE LOW...E OF 80W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS LOCATED OVER LAKE MARACAIBO VENEZUELA FROM 8N-11N BETWEEN 70W-73W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER N COLOMBIA NEAR 11N73W. MOSTLY WLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW WITH SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA. EXPECT THE COLD FRONT TO COMPLETE DISSIPATE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SLY SURFACE FLOW MAY PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER PUERTO RICO AND THE LEEWARD ISLANDS DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... AS OF 1500 UTC A 1012 MB LOW IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 29N79W. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS SW TO S FLORIDA NEAR 28N80W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 NM OF THE FRONT. A 1000 MB LOW IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 33N58W. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS SW FROM THE LOW TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE ALONG 29N60W 20N74W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF THE FRONT. AN AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FURTHER E FROM 25N-33N BETWEEN 43W-52W. A 1024 MB HIGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 33N28W. A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS SW TO 16N48W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... WLY ZONAL FLOW IS N OF 20N FROM FLORIDA TO W AFRICA. A TROUGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC FROM 5N-20N E OF 45W. A WEAK TROPICAL JETSTREAM DEPICTED BY THIN BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS EXTENDS FROM S OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS TO W AFRICA ALONG 10N30W 20N10W. $$ FORMOSA