000
AXNT20 KNHC 171100 RRA
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT TUE APR 17 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...
CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN 
TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING 
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0945 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...
7N10W 4N20W 2N30W...CROSSING THE EQUATOR AT 37W...TO 3S45W IN 
NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN
15 TO 20 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 5N21W 3N25W...AND FROM 3N TO 4N 
BETWEEN 25W AND 32W...FROM 1S TO 1N BETWEEN 47W AND 49W...AND
FROM 1N TO 2N BETWEEN 49W AND 51W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE GULF WATERS IN THE 
WAKE OF THE DEEP LAYER TROUGH THAT BROUGHT THE GULF OF MEXICO 
AREA AND NOW THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA THE COLD FRONT OF 
THE LAST 24 TO 48 HOURS. ANOTHER MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
IS DEVELOPING IN NORTH CENTRAL NEW MEXICO. A 1020 MB HIGH 
PRESSURE CENTER IS IN THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 
28N89W. THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE CENTER AND ACCOMPANYING TROUGH 
MOVE FROM THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA STRAIGHT EASTWARD 
TO THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE AREA...AND THEN OVER FLORIDA 
TOWARD THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...DURING THE NEXT 72 HOURS.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE 
ENTIRE AREA...WITH AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR 
14N73W. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR/SUBSIDENCE IS EVERYWHERE. 
THE FRONT THAT WAS STATIONARY AT 17/0000 UTC HAS MOVED AND NOW
THE COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM NORTHERN HAITI TO NORTHWESTERN 
JAMAICA TO THE NICARAGUA COAST NEAR 12N/13N. SCATTERED TO BROKEN 
LOW TO MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS ARE SOUTH OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC 
TO 16N BETWEEN 70W AND 73W...AND NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF THE COLD 
FRONT. PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE BUT NOT LIKELY IN THESE AREAS
OF CLOUDINESS.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
DEEP LAYER CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA NORTH OF 20N WEST OF 
60W. THE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER ON WATER VAPOR SATELLITE 
IMAGERY IS NEAR 39N69W. A COLD FRONT STILL IS BEING DRIVEN BY 
THIS DEEP LAYER SYSTEM...THROUGH 32N60W TO 25N65W 21N70W...
CROSSING NORTHERN HAITI...TO NORTHWESTERN JAMAICA...TO THE COAST
OF NICARAGUA NEAR 12N/13N. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 
30 TO 45 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 20N70W 23N65W 25N62W 28N58W 29N55W 
BEYOND 31N53W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS IMMEDIATELY TO THE EAST 
OF THE DEEP LAYER U.S.A. EAST COAST TROUGH. UPPER LEVEL 
ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NORTH OF 20N 
BETWEEN 35W AND 60W. A DEEP LAYER TROUGH GOES FROM A WATER VAPOR 
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR 40N34W. THIS DEEP LAYER FEATURE 
IS PROVIDING ENERGY FOR A SURFACE TROUGH THAT GOES FROM 30N31W 
TO 26N37W AND 23N47W. UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY WIND 
BLOWS FROM VENEZUELA AND GUYANA/SURINAME/AND FRENCH GUIANA 
NORTHEASTWARD...BEYOND 8N40W...AND PASSING OVER THE CAPE VERDE 
ISLANDS.

$$
MT