000 AXNT20 KNHC 160602 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT MON APR 16 2007 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA... CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA... NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0315 UTC. ...THE ITCZ... 7N10W 6N14W 3N20W 1N30W...CROSSING THE EQUATOR AT 35W...TO 3S45W IN NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM THE EQUATOR NORTHWARD TO THE AFRICA COAST BETWEEN THE PRIME MERIDIAN AND 5W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE SOUTH OF 7N BETWEEN 10W AND 20W...SOUTH OF 2N BETWEEN 10W AND 40W...AND SOUTH OF 7N BETWEEN 40W AND 57W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA NORTH OF 16N WEST OF 80W...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN WEST OF 70W... THE CURRENT U.S.A. EAST COAST STORM IS BEING DRIVEN BY A DEEP LAYER TROUGH THAT STILL IS PASSING OVER FLORIDA AT THIS MOMENT. THE TROUGH PASSES THROUGH EASTERN COASTAL SOUTH CAROLINA TO NORTH FLORIDA NEAR 29N82W TO THE FLORIDA KEYS AND THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 24N83W. DRY AIR/SUBSIDENCE ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IS EVERYWHERE WEST AND NORTH OF 32N73W 26N80W 23N90W 27N96W. A TINY BIT OF HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE IS CURVING ANTICYCLONICALLY INTO THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS...AND A BIT THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. THE COLD FRONT WITH THE DEEP LAYER TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N75W...TO THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS...TO 25N80W OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN FLORIDA COAST...ACROSS WESTERN CUBA INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 20N84W... ENDING IN BELIZE AND NORTHERN GUATEMALA NEAR 17N90W. GALE WIND CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING NORTH OF 28N WITHIN 240 NM EAST OF THE COLD FRONT...AND NORTH OF 27N WEST OF THE COLD FRONT...IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. PRECIPITATION IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA...ISOLATED MODERATE TO STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM HONDURAS TOWARD THE SOUTHEASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM 16N TO 18N BETWEEN 87W AND 88W...FROM 20N TO THE CUBA COAST BETWEEN 80W AND 83W. PRECIPITATION IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE MOVING ACROSS THE BAHAMAS FROM 22N TO 26N BETWEEN 73W AND 80W...AND WITHIN 15 TO 20 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N72W 29N74W 27N76W THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA... BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ENTIRE AREA. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 19N77W...JUST OFF THE NORTHERN JAMAICA COAST. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR/SUBSIDENCE IS EVERYWHERE. HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE FORM OF HIGH CLOUDS IS WEST OF 11N75W 15N78W 20N78W. A SURFACE TROUGH RUNS FROM NORTHEASTERN NICARAGUA NEAR 13N84W TO 17N83W TO 19N81W NEAR GRAND CAYMAN ISLAND.ASSOCIATED WITH A RAPIDLY DEEPENING LOW OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES. THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS IMMEDIATELY TO THE EAST OF THE DEEP LAYER U.S.A. EAST COAST TROUGH. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NORTH OF 20N BETWEEN 54W AND THE DEEP LAYER TROUGH. A SECOND DEEP LAYER CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER AND TROUGH ARE THE MAIN FEATURE IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN. ONE SURFACE TROUGH AND COLD FRONT WITH THIS SYSTEM STILL ARE NORTH OF 32N. THE TROUGH ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY PASSES THROUGH 32N44W TO 27N46W. A SURFACE TROUGH THAT IS BEING SUPPORTED BY THIS DEEP LAYER TROUGH GOES FROM 31N38W TO 28N40W TO 24N46W TO 20N54W. A SURFACE RIDGE GOES FROM A 1023 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 29N27W TO A 1022 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 24N34W TO 16N42W TO 11N45W TO 6N46W. A 1020 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 27N61W IS ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE 31N38W 20N54W TROUGH. BROKEN LOW TO MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS AND ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 TO 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE THE LINE THROUGH 32N36W 28N39W 24N44W 22N50W 20N54W. DENSE OVERCAST CLOUDS ARE RACING SOUTHEASTWARD WITH THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW...NOW FROM 23N TO 32N BETWEEN 43W AND 53W. A THIRD DEEP LAYER TROUGH IS RELATED TO A WATER VAPOR CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR 34N18W NORTHWEST OF THE MADEIRA ISLANDS TO 30N11W AND SOUTHERN MOROCCO. A RELATED SURFACE TROUGH IS NORTH OF 31N. $$ MT