000 AXNT20 KNHC 151022 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT SUN APR 15 2007 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS... WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0945 UTC. ...THE ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N7W 1N21W 2N35W 1N42W 2N52W. SCATTERED/NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 3N TO JUST S OF THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 4W-9W AND FROM 6N TO THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 9W-14W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 120/150 NM OF THE ITCZ AXIS FROM 24W-42W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... DEEP LAYERED TROUGH IS MOVING OVER THE E US AND THE N GULF N OF 25N W OF 82W WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT AT 15/0900 UTC ENTERING THE GULF ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE NEAR 31N84W EXTENDING ACROSS THE BAY CAMPECHE AND S MEXICO NEAR 18N94W PRODUCING STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ACCOMPANIED BY DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL. BAND OF SHOWERS/STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE E OF THE FRONT WITHIN 45 NM OF LINE FROM 27N86W ACROSS NE FLORIDA TO JUST W OF JACKSONVILLE WITH A BROADER AREA OF SIMILAR ACTIVITY OVER SE GEORGIA...E SOUTH CAROLINA AND FURTHER N. THIS FRONT AND ACCOMPANYING THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OUT OF THE GULF DURING THE DAY EXITING THE GULF TONIGHT/MON MORNING. BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF ANCHORED IN THE CARIBBEAN AND EXTENDS INTO THE W ATLC. THIS IS ADVECTING TROPICAL MOISTURE ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA GENERATING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS INLAND OVER THE YUCATAN AND INTO THE W CARIBBEAN. COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ARE W OF THE FRONT TO 94W. DRY AIR IS MOVING IN OVER THE NW GULF IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WHICH IS CLEARING THE SKIES AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD ACROSS THE CENTRAL US INTO THE GULF ANCHORED BY A 1022 MB HIGH OVER CENTRAL TEXAS. CARIBBEAN SEA... BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERS THE CARIBBEAN ANCHORED BY AN UPPER HIGH CENTERED NEAR 16N80W EXTENDING INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE W ATLC. THIS IS GIVING THE W CARIBBEAN S TO SW UPPER FLOW ADVECTING TROPICAL MOISTURE OVER CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS INLAND OVER THE YUCATAN AND INT HE NW CARIBBEAN N OF 17N W OF 85W. HIGH SURFACE PRESSURE OVER THE W ATLC IS BUILDING SW OVER THE CARIBBEAN ENHANCING THE MODERATE/STRONG EASTERLY TRADE WINDS. DRY AIR OVER THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 83W CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE AREA GIVING CLEAR SKIES WITH NO SHOWERS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... BROAD UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE CARIBBEAN COVERS THE W ATLC W OF 62W ACROSS FLORIDA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO. SURFACE RIDGE IS BUILDING SW OVER W ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1020 MB HIGH LOCATED NEAR 30N68W. DEEP LAYERED TROUGH IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC N OF 23N FROM 38W-62W WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 32N41W SW TO 22N51W. DUE TO THE DRY AIR ALREADY IN PLACE ACROSS THE ATLC...ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE TROUGH. DEEP LAYERED TROUGH IS OVER THE E ATLC EXTENDING INTO THE REGION N OF 24N E OF 20W TO INLAND OVER AFRICA WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ENTERING THE REGION NEAR 32N18W TO 26N25W. A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS IS CONTINUES TO BRIDGE THE FRONT N OF 15N E OF 43W WITH A 1020 MB HIGH NEAR 25N34W AND A STRONGER 1024 MB HIGH NEAR 33N31W. BROAD UPPER E/W RIDGE EXTENDS FROM OVER AFRICA ACROSS THE TROPICS ALONG 7N/8N TO 50W. DRY AIR REMAINS IN PLACE OVER MUCH OF THE ATLC GIVING THE AREA FAIR WEATHER CLOUDS AND LITTLE CHANCE OF SHOWERS. $$ WALLACE