000 AXNT20 KNHC 132349 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT FRI APR 13 2007 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS... WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...THE ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N10W 2N20W 1N35W...CROSSING THE EQUATOR AT 45W THEN INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 1S50W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 80-100 NM OF THE AXIS FROM 22W-28W. AN AREA OF STRONG CONVECTION IS MOVING OFF THE AFRICAN COAST AND COVERS FROM 4N-11N BETWEEN 7W-12W. A CLUSTER OF SIMILAR CONVECTION IS NEAR 5N13W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A DEEPENING LOW PRES SYSTEM OVER NEW MEXICO AND N TEXAS WILL MOVE ENE ACROSS THE SE US GENERATING SEVERE WEATHER CONDITIONS FROM TEXAS TO THE CAROLINAS TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. SEVERAL WATCHES/WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT...CURRENTLY OVER CENTRAL TEXAS AND COAHUILA MEXICO IS FORECAST TO ENTER THE NW CORNER OF THE GULF EARLY SATURDAY AND WILL EXTEND FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. MODERATE TO STRONG NLY WINDS OF 20 TO 30 KT WITH GUSTY GALE FORCE WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT. THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO REACH SOUTH FLORIDA SUNDAY AFTERNOON. SLY WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT ARE NOW BLOWING ACROSS THE GULF AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. ALOFT...SWLY WIND FLOW DOMINATES THE GULF AHEAD OF A STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH THAT RUNS FROM CENTRAL NEW MEXICO TO NORTHERN MEXICO. THESE WINDS ARE TRANSPORTING UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE/HIGH CLOUDS FROM THE EPAC INTO CENTRAL MEXICO AND THE GULF. THE MOSAIC DOPPLER RADAR SHOWS A NARROW LINE OF STRONG SHOWERS AND TSTMS RELATED TO THE COLD FRONT OVER CENTRAL TEXAS. CARIBBEAN SEA... THE MAIN WEATHER FEATURE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN IS A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT COVERS THE ENTIRE BASIN AND CENTRAL AMERICA. IT IS ANCHORED ON A HIGH CENTERED OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN NEAR 13N80W. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS BEING ADVECTED FROM THE EPAC OVER CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE NW CARIBBEAN BY THE SLY WIND FLOW ON THE WEST SIDE OF THIS ANTICYCLONE. CLUSTERS OF MODERATE CONVECTION ARE SEEN OVER W PANAMA AND GUATEMALA. THE EPAC ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS ACROSS PANAMA AND COSTA RICA ALSO GENERATING SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY. HEAT AFTERNOON SHOWERS/ISOLATED TSTMS ARE OVER CENTRAL/EASTERN CUBA. THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN IS PRETTY QUIET WITH THE TYPICAL PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MOVING FROM THE TROPICAL N ATLC INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN. MODERATE TO STRONG EASTERLY TRADE WINDS DOMINATE THE REGION. A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE YUCATAN CHANNEL/WESTERN CUBA SUNDAY EVENING. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A BROAD UPPER RIDGE FROM THE CARIBBEAN ALSO EXTENDS ACROSS THE W-CENTRAL ATLC WHILE A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE E ATLC. A COUPLE OF FRONTAL BOUNDARIES LIE OVER THE FORECAST AREA. ONE IS A DYING COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE AREA NEAR 32N64W THEN CONTINUES SW TO NEAR THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS. THE SECOND ONE EXTENDS SE FROM A 1009 MB SFC LOW LOCATED NEAR 31N59W TO 26N40W THEN NE AND N TO ANOTHER SFC LOW OVER THE AZORES. THE FRONT COMBINED WITH UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS CREATING A BAND OF MULTILAYERED CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS N OF 25N BETWEEN 30W-55W. A SWIRL OF LOW CLOUDS IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE 1009 MB LOW. SOUTH OF THE COLD FRONT A RIDGE DOMINATES MOST OF THE E-CENTRAL ATLC. THIS FEATURE IS PROVIDING FAIR WEATHER AND MAINLY LIGHT TO MODERATE TRADES THROUGHOUT THE REGION. A BAND OF UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE/HIGH CLOUDS EXTENDS FROM N SOUTH AMERICA ALL THE WAY ENE TO W AFRICA CROSSING SOUTH OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. THIS UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS RELATED TO A TROPICAL JETSTREAM WITH CORE WINDS OF 70-90 KT. $$ GR