000 AXNT20 KNHC 131757 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT FRI APR 13 2007 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS... WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...THE ITCZ... 7N7W 1N20W 1N30W 1N40W 2N45W...INTO NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL NEAR 1S53W. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 5N TO 10N BETWEEN 6W AND 10W ARE MOVING TOWARD 10W...STILL OVER LAND IN AFRICA. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS TO LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE EQUATOR TO 7N BETWEEN AFRICA AND NORTHEASTERN SOUTH AMERICA. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA. THIS FLOW IS TO THE SOUTHEAST OF A DEEP LAYER TROUGH THAT RUNS FROM CENTRAL NEW MEXICO TO NORTHERN MEXICO. SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS ARE PRESENT AT THE SURFACE IN THE GULF WATERS. A SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS GAINING STRENGTH OVER LAND. THE FORECAST IS FOR THIS FRONT TO MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE OPEN GULF OF MEXICO WATERS... TO BE IN THE CENTRAL-WESTERN GULF AFTER 24 HOURS...TO EXTEND FROM THE EASTERN-TO-THE CENTRAL GULF AFTER 48 HOURS...AND TO HAVE PASSED THROUGH THE GULF OF MEXICO ENTIRELY BETWEEN 48 HOURS AND 72 HOURS. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE STRETCHES FROM 10N60W IN THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE AREA TO 12N70W TO 15N79W BEYOND 17N88W IN BELIZE. THIN HIGH CLOUDS ARE SOUTH OF 20N WEST OF 80W. POSSIBLE SHOWERS ARE IN SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW TO MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS IN LINES OF CONFLUENT WIND FLOW AT THE SURFACE. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR/SUBSIDENCE IS EAST OF 80W. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... THE SOUTHERN POINT OF A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN JUST EAST OF THE U.S.A. EAST COAST REACHES 32N70W. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERN POINT OF THE TROUGH AND SOUTH OF 32N BETWEEN 50W AND 80W. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN DEEP LAYERED TROUGH IS GIVING ENERGY TO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH BERMUDA TO 30N67W 27N80W 27N75W. A SEPARATE 1010 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 31N61W. A COLD FRONT GOES FROM THE 31N61W LOW CENTER TO 26N63W. A WARM FRONT GOES FROM THE 31N61W LOW CENTER TO 28N52W. A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N32W IN THE EASTERN SECTION OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO 27N40W TO 28N52W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS FROM 26N TO 30N BETWEEN 30W AND 50W. A CENTRAL ATLANTIC DEEP LAYER TROUGH PASSING THROUGH 34N36W 29N39W 17N43W IS PROVIDING ENERGY FOR THE ATLANTIC OCEAN 32N32W 28N52W COLD FRONT. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...FROM A 27N16W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER TO 20N20W...IS MOVING TOWARD THE SOUTHERN HALF OF MOROCCO/WESTERN SAHARA. $$ MT