000 AXNT20 KNHC 121031 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT THU APR 12 2007 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS... WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0945 UTC. ...THE ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N10W 3N19W 1N30W 1N52W. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120/150 NM OF THE AXIS W OF 43W TO INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 200 NM OF THE AXIS W OF 20W ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... BROAD DEEP LAYERED TROUGH COVERS THE E US AND THE GULF OF MEXICO MOVING INTO THE W ATLC WITH THE UPPER LOW MOVING E OF THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. COMPLEX OCCLUDED FRONTAL SYSTEM IS WELL INLAND OVER E US WITH A COLD FRONT ENTERING THE REGION ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE INTO THE GULF NEAR PENSACOLA EXTENDING SW ALONG 26N94W TO INLAND OVER THE RIO GRANDE. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC ACROSS FLORIDA NEAR DAYTONA BEACH/TAMPA TO NEAR 23N88W. SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE N OF 24N TO THE TROUGH E OF 86W TO JUST INLAND OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. DRY AIR CONTINUES TO FILTER IN WAKE OF THE SURFACE TROUGH LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF UNDER CLEAR SKIES THIS MORNING. THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE GULF TODAY AND BEGIN TO WEAKEN BEFORE REACHING THE W ATLC ON FRI WITH THE NEXT FRONTAL PASSAGE ON SAT. CARIBBEAN SEA... BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERS THE CARIBBEAN ANCHORED BY AN UPPER HIGH CENTERED OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN NEAR 11N80W. THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS ACROSS PANAMA AND COSTA RICA GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS INLAND AND ALONG THE COAST OF FROM 80W-83W. DRY AIR AND CLEAR SKIES DOMINATE THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN WITH MODERATE/STRONG EASTERLY TRADE WINDS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH OVER THE N/CENTRAL ATLC N OF THE REGION IS DRAPING A COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA ALONG 32N44W TO 30N60W WHERE IT PULLS UP STATIONARY TO A 1011 MB LOW EMBEDDED WITHIN THE BROAD DEEP LAYERED TROUGH MOVING INTO THE W ATLC FROM THE E US AND GULF OF MEXICO. THE 1011 MB LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 32N74W WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING W TO THE COAST OF SOUTH CAROLINA. THIS COMPLEX SYSTEM IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MOVING E OF NE FLORIDA FROM 28N-31N BETWEEN 76W-79W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ALSO WITHIN 90 NM OF THE FRONT BETWEEN 47W-67W. BROAD UPPER RIDGE FROM THE CARIBBEAN EXTENDS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC. BROAD UPPER LOW IS OFF THE COAST OF MOROCCO AFRICA EXTENDS S TO OVER THE CANARY ISLANDS E OF 20W. A SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE ATLC E OF THE CENTRAL ATLC COLD FRONT ANCHORED BY A 1024 MB HIGH NEAR 33N23W AND EXTENDING S INTO THE TROPICS. THIS IS GIVING THE ATLC E OF 50W FAIR WEATHER CLOUDS AND LITTLE CHANCE OF SHOWERS. $$ WALLACE