000 AXNT20 KNHC 101049 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT TUE APR 10 2007 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS... WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1045 UTC. ...THE ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N10W 5N20W 3N30W CROSSING THE EQUATOR AT 41W CONTINUING INTO NE BRAZIL NEAR 2S45W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 18W-24W AND 28W-37W. ISOLATED MODERATE IS WITHIN 240 NM N OF THE AXIS W OF 37W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE FLARING UP IN THE N CENTRAL/EAST GULF. THE SYNOPSIS CONSISTS OF A WARM FRONT PULLING N ANALYZED FROM SOUTH CENTRAL FLORIDA TO 28N87W CONTINUING TO A 1007 MB LOW OFF THE TX COAST NEAR 28N96W AT 09Z. THIS IS 3 MB LOWER THAN THE 06Z ANALYSIS AND PRESSURES CONTINUE TO FALL. A STATIONARY FRONT LIES ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW ACROSS NRN MEXICO AND SW TEXAS...CLEARLY MARKED BY THICK LOW CLOUDS. INSTABILITY IN THE WARM SECTOR ALONG WITH UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE/SHEAR TO THE E OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM S TEXAS TO 21N104W...IS FUELING NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND TSTMS N OF 25N BETWEEN 86W-91W AND OVER SW LOUISIANA. THIS WARM FRONT DENOTES A SIGNIFICANT TEMP GRADIENT RANGING FROM THE 40'S IN THE FL PANHANDLE TO THE MID-UPPER 70'S S OF THE FRONT. A PLUME OF MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE BEING TRANSPORTED BY EXTENSIVE STRONG SWLY UPPER FLOW SE OF A LINE FROM THE ITCZ REGION IN THE EPAC ACROSS S MEXICO TO CENTRAL N FLORIDA ALONG 20N95W 27N87W 29N81W. ACTIVE WEATHER IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE THRU THE DAY...ESP IN THE E GULF...BEFORE THE LOW MOVES AWAY INTO THE W ATLC. A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO PUSH INTO THE NW CORNER LATE FRI/EARLY SAT. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... A BROAD MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERS THE REGION ANCHORED BY AN UPPER HIGH CENTERED OVER THE S CENTRAL CARIB NEAR 14N70W. DIFFLUENCE ON THE W SIDE OF THIS UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS ENHANCING CLUSTERS OF MODERATE CONVECTION OVER COLOMBIA AND PANAMA. THE CLUSTER THAT HAS BEEN IN THE SW CARIB HAS JUST ABOUT FIZZLED. A DEBRIS CIRRUS DECK COVERS THE AREA SE OF A LINE FROM 16N82W TO 12N69W. ELSEWHERE MODEST SUBSIDENCE IS KEEPING CONDITIONS FAIRLY TRANQUIL. AT THE SFC...WEAK HIGH PRES N OF THE AREA IS PRODUCING LIGHT TO MODERATE TRADES ACROSS THE REGION. THE LAST QSCAT PASS DEPICTED STRONGER 20 KT WINDS IN THE TYPICAL REGION JUST N OF THE COLOMBIAN COAST. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE APPEARS UNUSUALLY THIN THIS MORNING WITH ONLY BROKEN PATCHES OVER HISPANIOLA NEAR THE TAIL END OF AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS MOST OF THE WX FEATURES REMAIN N OF THE REGION. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A LARGE SCALE RIDGE/TROUGH PATTERN IS THE BIG PICTURE ACROSS THE ATLC DISCUSSION AREA THIS MORNING. THE BROAD RIDGE IS CENTERED IN THE S CARIB AND EXTENDS WELL N RUNNING ALONG 21N60W 32N40W. TO THE W OF THIS AXIS...THE UPPER FLOW IS GENERALLY ZONAL WITH A STREAK OF MULTILAYERED CLOUDS ROUGHLY N OF 26N. THESE CLOUDS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER JET STREAK AND DEEPENED BY THE LEADING EDGE OF A WARM FRONT WHICH RUNS FROM CENTRAL FL TO 32N75W AND A REMNANT FRONT...SFC TROUGH...ALONG 30N54W 21N67W. WEAK HIGH PRES EXISTS BETWEEN THE BOUNDARIES. THE MOISTURE IS DEEPEST IN AN UPPER DIFFLUENT ZONE...N OF 26N BETWEEN 40W-48W...IN RESPONSE TO THE LARGE TROUGH THAT ENCOMPASSES MUCH OF THE E ATLC. THIS UPPER TROUGH AXIS IS VERY PRONOUNCED EXTENDING FROM AN UPPER LOW OFF THE IBERIAN PENINSULA ENTERING THE AREA NEAR 32N22W AND EXTENDING WELL SSW ALONG 25N27W 16N34W 3N40W. THERE ARE A COUPLE ASSOCIATED SFC LOWS BEING TRACKED IN AND JUST N OF THE AREA...BUT THESE ARE BASICALLY LOW CLOUD SWIRLS NOT PRODUCING MUCH IN THE WAY OF WEATHER. IN FACT...THERE APPEARS TO BE LITTLE DEEP CLOUDINESS OUTSIDE OF THE AREA OUTLINED. ELSEWHERE AT THE SFC...A 1023 MB HIGH LOCATED NEAR 29N40W CONTROLS THE PATTERN FOR MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND E ATLC PRODUCING MODERATE TRADES ACROSS THE TROPICS. $$ CANGIALOSI