000 AXNT20 KNHC 100527 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT TUE APR 10 2007 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS... WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...THE ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N12W 5N20W 2N30W CROSSING THE EQUATOR AT 44W INTO NE BRAZIL NEAR 1S48W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM N OF THE AXIS E OF 22W...WITHIN 150 NM EITHER SIDE BETWEEN 27W-35W...AND WITHIN 180 NM EITHER SIDE W OF 41W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... A WARM FRONT CONTINUES TO SLOWLY DRIFT N IN THE NRN GULF. AS OF 09Z...THE FRONT WAS ANALYZED FROM CENTRAL FLORIDA TO 28N91W CONTINUING TO A 1010 MB LOW NEAR 27N96W. A STATIONARY FRONT LIES ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW ACROSS NRN MEXICO AND INTO SW TEXAS...CLEARLY MARKED BY THICK LOW CLOUDS. THE WARM FRONT DENOTES A DECENT TEMP GRADIENT RANGING FROM THE 50'S ALONG THE GULF COAST TO THE MID 70'S S OF THE FRONT. A 00Z QSCAT PASS ALSO SHOWS A CLEAR WIND SPEED GRADIENT WITH LIGHT...10 KT...SE/ESE WINDS S AND QUITE STRONGER 15-20 KT ENE/E WINDS TO THE N OF THE FRONT. OVERRUNNING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ALONG WITH UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE TO THE E OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXTENDING ACROSS MEXICO...FROM 29N101W TO 20N110W...IS FUELING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS N OF 27N BETWEEN 89W-94W. ELSEWHERE ALONG AND TO THE N OF THE FRONT...A BROKEN DECK OF LOW-MID LEVEL CLOUDS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS IS THE GENERAL THEME. THE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE MORE TRANQUIL AND TROPICAL-LIKE S OF THE FRONT. A PLUME OF MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS IS BEING TRANSPORTED BY EXTENSIVE MODERATE TO STRONG SWLY UPPER FLOW SE OF A LINE FROM THE ITCZ REGION IN THE EPAC ACROSS S MEXICO TO CENTRAL N FLORIDA ALONG 21N96W 27N87W 29N81W. SEVERAL COMPUTER MODELS SHOW THE LOW STRENGTHENING...WHICH LOOKS PLAUSIBLE GIVEN THE NEARBY UPPER SUPPORT...AND PUSHING OFF INTO THE W ATLC TOMORROW NIGHT. IF THIS DOES OCCUR...THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE OF SOME ORGANIZED RAINFALL IN THE E GULF LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... A BROAD MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERS THE REGION ANCHORED BY AN UPPER HIGH CENTERED OVER THE S CENTRAL CARIB NEAR 14N70W. A DIFFLUENT PATTERN ON THE W SIDE OF THIS UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS ENHANCING CLUSTERS OF MODERATE CONVECTION OVER COLOMBIA...PANAMA AND THE SW CARIBBEAN S OF 13N...ALTHOUGH THIS PATCH HAS BEEN WEAKENING OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. A BROKEN CIRRUS DECK COVERS THE AREA SE OF A LINE FROM 16N82W TO 12N69W. ELSEWHERE MODEST SUBSIDENCE IS KEEPING CONDITIONS FAIRLY TRANQUIL. AT THE SFC...WEAK HIGH PRES N OF THE AREA IS PRODUCING LIGHT TO MODERATE TRADES ACROSS THE REGION. A 22Z QSCAT PASS SHOWS STRONGER 20 KT WINDS IN THE TYPICAL REGION JUST N OF THE COLOMBIAN COAST. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE APPEARS UNUSUALLY THIN THIS MORNING WITH ONLY BROKEN PATCHES OVER HISPANIOLA NEAR THE TAIL END OF A WEAKENING FRONT. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A LARGE SCALE RIDGE/TROUGH PATTERN IS THE BIG PICTURE ACROSS THE ATLC DISCUSSION AREA THIS MORNING. THE BROAD RIDGE IS CENTERED IN THE S CARIB AND EXTENDS WELL N RUNNING ALONG 21N60W 32N40W. TO THE W OF THIS AXIS...THE UPPER FLOW IS GENERALLY ZONAL WITH A STREAK OF MULTILAYERED CLOUDS ROUGHLY N OF 26N. THESE CLOUDS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER JET STREAK AND DEEPENED BY THE LEADING EDGE OF A WARM FRONT WHICH RUNS FROM CENTRAL FL TO 31N75W AND A WEAKENING STATIONARY FRONT THAT ENTERS THE AREA NEAR 32N50W AND THEN CONTINUES SW TO THE N SHORE OF HISPANIOLA NEAR 20N70W. WEAK HIGH PRES EXISTS BETWEEN THE FRONTS. THE MOISTURE IS DEEPEST IN AN UPPER DIFFLUENT ZONE...N OF 27N BETWEEN 40W-51W...IN RESPONSE TO THE LARGE TROUGH THAT ENCOMPASSES MUCH OF THE E ATLC. THIS UPPER TROUGH AXIS IS VERY PRONOUNCED EXTENDING FROM AN UPPER LOW OFF THE IBERIAN PENINSULA ENTERING THE AREA NEAR 32N22W AND EXTENDING WELL SSW ALONG 25N27W 16N35W 3N44W. THERE ARE A COUPLE ASSOCIATED SFC LOWS BEING TRACKED JUST N OF THE AREA...BUT THESE ARE NOT PRODUCING MUCH IN THE WAY OF WEATHER. IN FACT...THERE APPEARS TO BE LITTLE DEEP CLOUDINESS OUTSIDE OF THE AREA OUTLINED. ELSEWHERE AT THE SFC...A 1023 MB HIGH LOCATED NEAR 29N42W CONTROLS THE PATTERN FOR MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND E ATLC PRODUCING MODERATE TRADES ACROSS THE TROPICS. $$ CANGIALOSI