000 AXNT20 KNHC 090001 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT SUN APR 08 2007 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS... WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2345 UTC. ...THE ITCZ... THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N12W 4N20W 1N30W...CROSSING THE EQ AT 37W AND CONTINUING INTO NE BRAZIL NEAR 2S45W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 14W-20W...AND FROM 5S-EQ BETWEEN 26W-37W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... AS OF 08/2100 UTC....A 1015 MB LOW IS ABOUT 175NM E OF BROWNSVILLE TX IN THE WRN GULF. A DEVELOPING WARM FRONT EXTENDS E FROM THE LOW TO 26N88W AND A TROUGH EXTENDS S OF THE LOW TO 20N96W. EXTENSIVE LOW TO MID CLOUD DECK WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN IS AFFECTING THE GULF NW OF A TUXPAN MEXICO TO BILOXI MS LINE. THE INTERACTION BETWEEN THE SFC LOW IN THE GULF WITH HIGH PRES OVER ERN TEXAS HAS LED TO PERSISTENT STRONG NE WINDS AND WIND WAVES IN THE NW GULF...WHICH HAS PROMPTED A HIGH SURF ADVISORY FOR BEACHES ALONG S TX. SEE STATEMENTS FROM WFO BROWNSVILLE FOR MORE INFO. MUCH SMALLER BREAKING WAVES ANTICIPATED IN NRN TX AS THE NE FLOW IS MORE OFFSHORE. WINDS/WAVES WILL SUBSIDE STEADILY THROUGH EARLY WEAK WITH A RELAXING GRADIENT...AND MORE OF A RETURN FLOW PATTERN SETTING UP. CONDITIONS ARE MUCH QUIETER IN THE ERN GULF THIS EVENING WITH SFC RIDGING AND THE PLEASANT COOL AIRMASS DOMINATING. THIS AIR MASS WILL STEADILY MODIFY OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS WINDS VEER E TO SE. UPPER FLOW IS HIGHLY W/WSW AT THE MOMENT...ADVECTING BANDS OF HIGH CLOUDS/MOISTURE EWD THROUGH THE FAR NE PORTION AND BETWEEN TAMPICO AND FT MYERS. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... LIGHT TO MODERATE TRADES DOMINATE THIS EVENING AS THE GRADIENT IS STILL FAIRLY LOOSE IN RESPONSE TO THE RECENT FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT IS NOW MOSTLY N OF THE AREA. THESE WINDS ARE DRIVING TYPICAL PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WWD ACROSS THE BASIN. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION HAS FLARED ALONG THE COLOMBIAN AND VENEZUELAN COASTS S OF 13N BETWEEN 69W-76W. CIRRUS OVER THIS CONVECTION AND EPAC ITCZ CONVECTION IS SPREADING NE THROUGH THE CARIB WITH UPPER SW FLOW DOMINATING AROUND RIDGING. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES WILL REDEVELOP OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS HIGH PRES BUILDS N OF THE AREA. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... WEAK SFC HIGH PRES IS BUILDING INTO THE WRN ATLC BEHIND A STATIONARY FRONT THAT ENTERS THE AREA NEAR 32N52W AND CONTINUES SW TO THE TURKS AND CAICOS NEAR 22N73W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT. A PREFRONTAL TROUGH IS N OF PUERTO RICO ALONG 24N62W 20N67W...AND HAS NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITHIN 30 NM EITHER SIDE. THE FRONT WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE THROUGH TUE. WEAK RIDGING OVER THE WRN ATLC WILL SHIFT S THROUGH EARLY WEAK IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE NW PORTION OF THE AREA TUE NIGHT. THE SRN PERIPHERY OF A 1025MB HIGH NEAR 32N41W DOMINATES MUCH OF THE CENTRAL ATLC DISCUSSION AREA. THIS IS PRODUCING ABUNDANT MODERATE TO FRESH NE WINDS AND FAIR WEATHER BETWEEN 30W-50W...AND WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT E OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. MUCH OF THE CENTRAL ATLC ALSO DOMINATED BY AN UPPER RIDGE WITH AN AXIS THAT EXTENDS NE FROM THE LEEWARD ISLANDS TO WELL N OF THE AREA. THE E ATLC OCEAN E OF 45W IS UNDER AN AMPLIFIED MID TO UPPER TROUGH. ASSOCIATED SFC TROUGH IS ALONG 31N14W 23N21W...WITH ANOTHER ALONG 30N24W 27N26W. $$ WILLIS