000 AXNT20 KNHC 060004 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT THU APR 05 2007 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS... WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...THE ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N12W 4N20W 2N30W EQ37W AND INTO SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 3S45W. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER AFRICA AND ADJACENT ATLC WATERS FROM 3N-12N BETWEEN 2W-10W. SCATTERED MODERATE IS S OF THE AXIS FROM 6S-EQ BETWEEN 30W-36W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AS OF 05/2100 UTC A 1010 MB LOW IS IN THE SW GULF NEAR 23N92W. THE LOW HAS AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXTENDING S THROUGH THE WRN YUCATAN...AND A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING ENE FROM THE LOW TO SW FLORIDA. A TROUGH EXTENDS WSW FROM THE LOW TO 22N97W...WHICH IS A NEW ADDITION TO THE MAP BASED ON THE SWIRL OF LOW CLOUDS SEEN JUST N OF THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. ALL OF THIS ACTIVITY IS BEING SUPPORTED BY A SHARP UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXTENDING SSW FROM CENTRAL LOUISIANA TO NEAR VERACRUZ MEXICO. IN ADDITION TO THE SFC FEATURES...THE UPPER DIFFLUENT ZONE AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH IS SUPPORTING THE OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDINESS WITH NUMEROUS SHOWERS N OF 23N E OF 92W. LIGHTNING DATA ALSO SUPPORTS SCATTERED TSTMS FROM 24N-27N BETWEEN 85W-89W. MODERATE TO STRONG NE WINDS ARE BEHIND THE FRONT WITH MUCH LIGHTER AND MORE VARIABLE WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE FOCUS OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL SHIFT SE TOWARDS THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA THROUGH TOMORROW EVENING AS THE FRONT MOVES SE...WITH HIGH PRES N OF THE AREA TAKING CONTROL OF THE GULF. CARIBBEAN SEA... TRADES ARE ON THE LIGHT SIDE IN THE NW PORTION...WITH A WEAKNESS IN THE GRADIENT BEING FELT IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE GULF. LIGHT TO MODERATE TRADES ARE BEING FELT OVER MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIB E OF 77W. A SMALL PATCH OF MODERATE CONVECTION AHEAD OF THE GULF FRONT IS PUSHING INTO THE CARIB WATERS JUST E OF THE YUCATAN...FROM 18N-20N W OF 85W. BROKEN LOW TO MID CLOUDS WITH POSSIBLE SHOWERS ALSO NOTED IN A LOW LEVEL CONFLUENT ZONE BETWEEN NE HONDURAS AND ERN CUBA. THE ONLY OTHER NOTABLE PATCH OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH POSSIBLE SHOWERS IS NOTED MIDWAY BETWEEN VENEZUELA AND HISPANIOLA. ALOFT...BROAD UPPER RIDGING PERSISTS...WHICH IS ADVECTING HIGH CLOUDS FROM CONVECTION OVER THE EPAC ITCZ NE THROUGH CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE WRN CARIBBEAN SEA. LOOK FOR THE FRONT IN THE GULF TO PUSH INTO THE NW CARIB DURING FRI BRINGING SHOWER ACTIVITY TO THE NW AND CENTRAL PORTIONS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A STATIONARY FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC TO SOUTH CENTRAL FLORIDA ALONG 32N72W 27N81W. SMALL PATCH OF MODERATE CONVECTION WITH TSTMS NOTED FROM 28N-29N BETWEEN 73W-77W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ANTICIPATED ELSEWHERE OFF THE SE U.S. COAST NW OF A LINE ALONG 24N77W 32N60W. STRONG UPPER WLY FLOW AROUND RIDGING IS SPREADING SIGNIFICANT UPPER MOISTURE INTO THE WRN ATLC W OF 55W. A SECOND COLD FRONT IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC ALONG 32N35W 24N48W AND THEN CONTINUES WSW AS A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT TO 26N62W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ESTIMATED WITHIN 60 NM OF THIS FRONT. A SFC TROUGH IS ALSO FURTHER S IN THE CENTRAL ATLC ALONG 22N37W 14N50W...THAT HAS OVERCAST LOW TO MID CLOUDS WITH POSSIBLE EMBEDDED SHOWERS WITHIN 30NM EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH AXIS. UPPER TROUGHING ALSO EXTENDS S THROUGH THE CENTRAL ATLC GIVEN SUPPORT TO THE SFC FEATURES. VERTICALLY STACKED RIDGING DOMINATES E ATLC...WITH A 1018 MB SFC HIGH JUST W OF THE CANARY ISLANDS AT 28N23W. $$ WILLIS