000 AXNT20 KNHC 041806 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT WED APR 4 2007 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA... CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA... NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY... METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1745 UTC. ...THE ITCZ... 5N7W 1N20W...TO THE EQUATOR AT 25W...ALONG THE EQUATOR TO 34W... TO 1N40W...INTO EXTREME NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL NEAR 2S46W. SCATTERED STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 2S TO 2N BETWEEN 4W AND 7W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS TO LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM 4S TO 4N BETWEEN 10W AND 50W...AND WITHIN 30 TO 60 NM OF THE COAST FROM BRAZIL TO GUYANA BETWEEN 50W AND 60W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... A HEALTHY SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR 27N101W IN NORTHEASTERN MEXICO TO THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 20N95W. THIS TROUGH IS SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT WHICH RUNS FROM EAST CENTRAL TEXAS TO THE TEXAS BIG BEND AND NORTHWESTWARD TO FAR WEST TEXAS. WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXTEND FROM 26N TO 31N BETWEEN 92W AND 100W IN THE GULF WATERS AND IN TEXAS. THE COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE GULF WATERS DURING THE NEXT 48 TO 72 HOURS. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ALONG 80W. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN IS BEING PUSHED FROM THE AREA OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC ITCZ NORTHWARD ACROSS EL SALVADOR...HONDURAS... GUATEMALA...AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA. THE BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW ACCOMPANYING THIS RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA TO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN ISLANDS. THE HIGH CLOUDS THAT REACH FROM 70W TO CENTRAL AMERICA ARE MOVING ON TOP OF MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR THAT ALREADY HAS BEEN IN PLACE IN THIS REGION. SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN LINES OF CONFLUENT WIND FLOW THAT HAVE HELPED TO DEVELOP SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW TO MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS...MAINLY NORTH OF 17N BETWEEN 60W AND 67W...FROM 12N TO 15N BETWEEN 62W AND 77W...AND FROM 17N TO 20N BETWEEN 70W AND 80W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 9N TO 10N BETWEEN 79W AND 81W JUST NORTH OF PANAMA... MOST PROBABLY PART OF THE ITCZ. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ALONG 80W FROM THE CARIBBEAN SEA CONTINUES 20N JUST SOUTH OF CUBA STILL MORE TO THE NORTH NEAR 30N/31N. A DEEP LAYER TROUGH RUNS FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 13N63W TO 20N60W TO 26N58W BEYOND 31N54W. THIS TROUGH IS SUPPORTING THE 999 MB GALE LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 34N51W. A COLD FRONT GOES FROM THIS GALE LOW CENTER THROUGH 31N49W TO 29N50W TO 27N60W. A TROUGH CONTINUES FROM 27N60W TO 28N70W. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 15 TO 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 28N68W 27N60W 27N52W 29N47W BEYOND 31N44W. A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT PASSES THROUGH 31N24W TO 26N30W TO 18N38W. BROKEN LOW TO MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 TO 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT. $$ MT