000 AXNT20 KNHC 031758 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT TUE APR 3 2007 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS... WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1730 UTC. ...THE ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N10W 2N20W 1N33W EQ50W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 1N-7N BETWEEN 18W-23W AND S OF 2N BETWEEN 33W-38W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE STRETCHES ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE AXIS RUNNING FROM WRN CUBA THRU THE FL PANHANDLE AND WELL NWD TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES. SWLY UPPER FLOW TO THE W OF THE RIDGE AXIS IS TRANSPORTING A SCATTERED TO BROKEN LAYER OF MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION W OF 91W. THE CLOUDS APPEAR THICKER N OF 23N BETWEEN 91W-94W WHERE SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE LIKELY EMBEDDED AS INDICATED BY MOSAIC DOPPLER RADAR WHICH SHOWS A FEW SHOWERS OVER SRN LOUISIANA. AT THE SFC...THE WRN PERIPHERY OF A WEAK HIGH PRES RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS THE GULF. THIS RIDGE IS AIDING IN THE MAINLY FAIR WEATHER AND PRODUCING LIGHT TO MODERATE SE-S RETURN FLOW. LOOKING AHEAD A COUPLE OF DAYS...A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SEEP INTO THE N GULF TOMORROW VEERING THE WINDS TO THE N BEHIND IT. CARIBBEAN SEA... THIS MORNING QSCAT PASS AND SFC OBS SHOWED A CONSIDERABLE AREA OF 20 TO 25 KT ELY TRADES E OF 82W EXCEPT N OF THE COLOMBIAN COAST WHERE THE WINDS ARE A LITTLE STRONGER...TO 30 KT. THESE WINDS ARE BLOWING LEFT OVER CLOUDS FROM A DISSIPATING FRONT IN THE TROPICAL ATLC ACROSS THE REGION MAINLY S OF 15N. EMBEDDED ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE LIKELY AS INDICATED BY THE OBS IN THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS...A BROAD RIDGE IS ALIGNED E-W ACROSS NRN SOUTH AMERICA AND THEN EXTENDS NWD FROM COLOMBIA TO WRN CUBA. UPPER LEVEL CONFLUENCE IN THE E CARIB IS LEADING TO A STRONG CAP ABOVE THE MOIST LOW-LAYER SUPPRESSING THE DEVELOPMENT OF DEEP MOISTURE. HOWEVER...DEEP MOISTURE DOES EXIST OVER PANAMA AND PARTS OF THE EXTREME SW CARIB TRIGGERED BY THE ITCZ AND S-SWLY FLOW TO THE W OF THE RIDGE AXIS. LOOKING AHEAD A COUPLE DAYS...THE WEAK SFC RIDGE N OF THE AREA WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN ALLOWING THE TRADES TO SLACKEN ALSO REDUCING THE FEED OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE TROPICAL ATLC. ATLANTIC OCEAN... QUIET CONDITIONS DOMINATE MUCH OF THE ATLC DISCUSSION AREA. IN THE WRN ATLC...A WEAK SFC RIDGE COVERS THE REGION WITH TWO EMBEDDED HIGHS...A 1023 MB NEAR 29N73W AND A 1022 MB NEAR 28N62W. THE WEAK PRES PATTERN IS KEEPING WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT TO FRESH ACROSS THE AREA. IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS...A BROAD RIDGE IS ALSO BUILDING E INTO THE AREA WITH THE AXIS RUNNING FAIRLY N-S FROM THE W CARIB TO FLORIDA CONTINUING WELL N TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES. MUCH OF THE W AND CENTRAL ATLC LIES ON THE E SIDE OF THE RIDGE AND S OF A VERTICALLY STACKED LARGE LOW PRES SYSTEM NEAR 40N42W. THIS CONFLUENT PATTERN IS AIDING IN THE SINKING OF AIR ALOFT KEEPING PATCHES OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE SHALLOW. THERE IS A SWATH OF SCATTERED LAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE EMBEDDED ISOLATED SHOWERS N OF 26N BETWEEN 35W-55W AND N OF 31N W OF THERE ASSOCIATED WITH A SERIES OF LOWS N OF THE REGION. THE UPPER FLOW ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC CONTINUES TO BE RATHER ZONAL TO WSW. THIS IS PROVIDING LITTLE SUPPORT FOR THE COLD FRONT WHICH ENTERS THE AREA NEAR 32N26W TO 23N33W THEN CONTINUING AS A DISSIPATING STATIONARY TO 14N48W. THIS FRONT HAS LIMITED MOISTURE WITH ONLY A LINE OF LOW CLOUDS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 60 NM AHEAD OF IT. WEAK HIGH PRES RIDGING LIES JUST E OF THE FRONT ANCHORED BY A 1020 MB HIGH BETWEEN THE CANARY AND MADEIRA ISLANDS NEAR 31N18W. IN THE FAR SE TROPICAL N ATLC...THE UPPER FLOW VEERS MORE TO THE SW IN RESPONSE TO EXTENSIVE FLAT RIDGING OVER AFRICA. THIS DIFFLUENT PATTERN IS PROVIDING A MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR CONVECTION IN THE ITCZ. $$ CANGIALOSI