000 AXNT20 KNHC 030508 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT TUE APR 3 2007 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS... WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0345 UTC. ...THE ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N8W 4N18W 2N30W CROSSING THE EQUATOR NEAR 43W INTO NE BRAZIL. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 75 NM OF LINE 2.5N16W ACROSS THE ITCZ AXIS TO THE COAST OF AFRICA NEAR 7.5N12.5W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 150 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS FROM 28W-34W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... BROAD UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THE GULF INTO THE W ATLC WITH THE AXIS EXTENDING THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL TO OVER THE SE US NEAR THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS IS ADVECTING UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE E PACIFIC REGION ACROSS MEXICO INTO THE W GULF GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SW GULF S OF 26N W OF 93W. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC INTO THE E GULF WITH A WEAK 1021 MB HIGH ALONG THE COAST OF FLORIDA NEAR 30N84W PRODUCING LIGHT S TO E WINDS ACROSS THE ENTIRE GULF. A WEAK SEA-BREEZE INDUCED SURFACE TROUGH IS INLAND OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA BUT IS NO LONGER PRODUCING ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY. BROKEN/OVERCAST HIGH CLOUDS COVER MOST OF THE W GULF WHILE THE E GULF HAS RELATIVELY CLEAR SKIES. CARIBBEAN SEA... BROAD UPPER E/W RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS THE N PORTION OF SOUTH AMERICA COVERING THE CARIBBEAN WITH MOSTLY SW TO W UPPER WINDS WHICH IS ADVECTING TROPICAL MOISTURE ACROSS THE SW GULF GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 12N FROM 74W-80W. MODERATE/STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY UPPER AIR COVER THE N CARIBBEAN N OF 15N. THE SURFACE RIDGE FROM THE W ATLC IS BEGINNING TO RELAX. HOWEVER...THE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS REMAIN MODERATE TO STRONG ACROSS THE AREA. THESE WINDS ARE BRINGING IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA FROM 12N-16N E OF 77W ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES. ATLANTIC OCEAN... BROAD UPPER RIDGE THAT COVERS THE CARIBBEAN AND GULF OF MEXICO EXTEND INTO THE W ATLC W OF 60W. A SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE W ATLC INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO ANCHORED BY A 1023 MB HIGH S OF BERMUDA NEAR 30N65W. A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH IS IN THE E/CENTRAL ATLC N OF 20N FROM 25W-60W WITH THE UPPER LOW WELL N OF THE REGION. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ENTERS THE REGION NEAR 32N29W EXTENDING SSW TO 17N42W AND A SECOND SURGE COLD FRONT CLIPPING THE AREA NEAR 31N37W. SWATH OF MODERATE/STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY UPPER AIR COVERS THE AREA WITHIN 300/350 NM OF LINE FROM THE LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR 18N62W TO 23N40W THEN NARROWING TO WITHIN 200/250 NM ALONG 25N28W TO AFRICA NEAR 27N13W. LOW LEVEL CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60/75 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. BROAD E/W UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE TROPICAL ATLC EXTENDING FROM AFRICA ACROSS THE ATLC TO SOUTH AMERICA WITH THE AXIS ROUGHLY ALONG 6N/7N THUS SUPPRESSING THE ITCZ AXIS TO THE S. A SURFACE LOW CURRENTLY IN THE NW ATLC IS EXPECTED TO DEEPEN AND DROP S INTO THE N PORTION OF THE CENTRAL ATLC OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS INCREASING SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH ASSOCIATED STRONGER WINDS AND HIGH SEAS TO WELL WITHIN THE AREA. $$ WALLACE