000
AXNT20 KNHC 021750
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT MON APR 2 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN 
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE 
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION 
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS... 
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1715 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ IS CENTERED ALONG 6N10W 3N20W 1N30W EQ40W AND INTO NE 
BRAZIL NEAR 2S45W.  SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS 
ALONG THE COAST OF W AFRICA FROM 1S-7N BETWEEN 6W-13W.  WIDELY 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 3S-3N BETWEEN 30W-52W.   

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A 1027 MB HIGH OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 30N66W IS PRODUCING 
10-15 KT E-SE RETURN SURFACE FLOW OVER THE ENTIRE GULF OF 
MEXICO.  AN AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED OVER 
THE W GULF FROM 21N-23N BETWEEN 95W-98W.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS... 
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER MEXICO NEAR 26N108W 
PRODUCING UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE AND OVERCAST HIGH CLOUDS OVER 
THE W GULF OF MEXICO W OF 90W.  A BROAD RIDGE IS OVER THE GULF 
WITH PREDOMINATELY SW-W UPPER LEVEL FLOW.  EXPECT CONTINUED 
SHOWERS AND CONVECTION OVER THE W GULF FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.    

CARIBBEAN SEA...
20-25 KT TRADES COVERS THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN SEA.  CLUSTERS OF 
SCATTERED SHOWERS DOTS THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL 
AMERICA.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A BROAD RIDGE IS OVER THE SEA 
WITH PREDOMINATELY SW-W UPPER LEVEL FLOW AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE.  
EXPECT CONTINUED SHOWERS AND CONVECTION OVER THE ENTIRE 
AREA...MOSTLY S OF 15N...FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A 1027 MB HIGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 30N66W.  A SURFACE 
RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS SW TO S FLORIDA.  A 1009 MB LOW IS OVER THE E 
ATLANTIC NEAR 34N31W.  A COLD FRONT EXTENDS SW TO 25N35W 
20N40W.  SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM E OF FRONT.  IN THE 
UPPER LEVELS... A BROAD RIDGE IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC N OF 20N W 
OF 60W.  THE BASE OF A TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC N OF 
20N BETWEEN 40W-60W WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE.  WLY ZONAL FLOW IS 
OVER THE E ATLANTIC E OF 40W.  EXPECT A NEW LOW TO PRODUCE 
CONVECTION OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC N OF 25N BETWEEN 50W-60W 
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  ALSO EXPECT THE LOW AND FRONT TO MOVE 
E WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.     

$$
FORMOSA