000 AXNT20 KNHC 012341 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT SUN APR 1 2007 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS... WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...THE ITCZ... ITCZ IS CENTERED ALONG 5N10W 2N20W 1N35W CROSSING THE EQUATOR AT 44W INTO NE BRAZIL. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 80-100 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS WEST OF 25W. CLUSTERS OF MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION ARE OVER NE BRAZIL AND OVER SW AFRICA FROM EQ-10W JUST W OF THE PRIME MERIDIAN. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A STATIONARY FRONT LOCATED NEAR THE TEXAS COAST IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS OVER NE MEXICO AND THE NW QUADRANT OF THE GULF. THIS FRONT WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY. THE W PERIPHERY OF A 1026 MB HIGH CENTERED IN THE SW ATLC NEAR 31N70W DOMINATES MOST OF THE REGION. THE RATHER TIGHT PRES GRADIENT SET UP BETWEEN THIS HIGH AND LOWER PRES IN THE NW GULF IS PRODUCING SE TO S RETURN FLOW OF 15 T0 20 KT PARTICULARLY OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE GULF. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A RIDGE COVERS THE GULF AND THE STATE OF FLORIDA. SOME UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS BEING TRANSPORTED FROM THE EPAC ACROSS MEXICO INTO THE GULF AND SE US. CIRRUS CLOUDS ARE SEEN OVER THE GULF...WHILE AN AREA OF SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED TSTMS IS AFFECTING PARTS OF GEORGIA AND ALABAMA AS WELL AS SE LOUISIANA. ACCORDING TO THE COMPUTER MODELS...A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO ENTER THE N GULF ON WEDNESDAY. A FAIR AMOUNT OF MOISTURE IS LIKELY TO REMAIN IN THE WRN GULF AS THE REGION REMAINS UNDER A DIFFLUENT PATTERN ALOFT. CARIBBEAN SEA... A 1026 MB SFC HIGH SITUATED NORTH OF THE AREA IS PRODUCING MODERATE TO STRONG TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE BASIN...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF 17N BETWEEN 70W-80W. THESE WINDS ARE DRIVING PATCHES OF LOW/MID LEVEL CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE SEA. SIMILAR FRAGMENTS OF MOISTURE ARE SEEN OVER HONDURAS AND NICARAGUA. A WIDE BAND OF HIGH CLOUDS EXTENDS EWD FROM THE E CARIBBEAN INTO THE TROPICAL NORTH ATLC ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG WLY UPPER FLOW BETWEEN AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC AND AN UPPER HIGH LOCATED IN THE DEEP TROPICS NEAR 7N45W. AN EXTENSIVE RIDGE EXTENDS WNW FROM THIS HIGH COVERING NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN SEA. DRY AIR AND MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE ALOFT ARE FOUND OVER MOST OF THE GREATER ANTILLES AND THE REGIONAL COASTAL WATERS. MODERATE TO STRONG TRADE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BLOW ACROSS TE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY AND WILL THEN DECREASE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A RIDGE/TROUGH/RIDGE PATTERN EXISTS ACROSS THE ATLC DISCUSSION AREA. A RIDGE IS OVER THE W ATLC WITH THE AXIS EXTENDING N ALONG 75W. AN UPPER TROUGH ENTERS THE FORECAST REGION NEAR 31N52W THEN CONTINUES SW TO NEAR 20N59W. THERE ARE THREE FRONTAL BOUNDARIES RELATED TO THIS TROUGH. THE SOUTHERNMOST EXTENDS FROM 31N35W TO 17N46W AS A COLD FRONT...THEN IT CONTINUES AS A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT TO NEAR 14N48W. A DIFFLUENT PATTERN ALOFT IS HELPING TO DEVELOP SOME SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAINLY W OF 40W. THE OTHER TWO REINFORCING FRONTS ARE LINED UP BEHIND THIS MAIN ONE. THE FIRST ONE ENTERS THE AREA NEAR 32N47W TO JUST S OF BERMUDA. THE SECOND ONE IS STILL WELL N OF THE AREA. BROKEN COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ARE BETWEEN THESE FRONTS. THE REMAINDER OF THE E ATLC IS DOMINATED BY THE SRN PERIPHERY OF A SFC HIGH PRES LOCATED WELL N OF THE AREA. THIS FEATURE IS PRODUCING ABUNDANT 10-20 KT E/NE WINDS AND FAIR WEATHER E OF 30W. $$ GR