000 AXNT20 KNHC 010604 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT SUN APR 1 2007 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS... WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0545 UTC. ...THE ITCZ... ITCZ IS CENTERED ALONG 6N10W 3N20W 2N35W 4N52W. NUMEROUS MODERATE/SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 14W-24W. ISOLATED MODERATE IS WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF AXIS BETWEEN 25W-29W...AND BETWEEN 44W-52W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... HEAVY SHOWERS AND TSTMS CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE NW GULF IN ADVANCE OF A STATIONARY FRONT THAT AS OF 01/0300 UTC ENTERS THE AREA JUST W OF FREEPORT TEXAS AND CONTINUES SSW TO JUST JUST W OF BROWNSVILLE AND THEN INLAND OVER NE MEXICO. SCATTERED TSTMS HAVE ALSO PERSISTED ALONG THE E SLOPES OF THE SIERRA MADRE WITH MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW AND ADDITIONAL LIFT AHEAD OF THE FRONT. CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO...ESPECIALLY WITHIN 300 NM EITHER SIDE OF A TAMPICO TO NEW ORLEANS LINE WITH SLOW MOVING FRONT GRADUALLY BECOMING DIFFUSE. REMAINDER OF GULF SFC PATTERN DOMINATED BY WRN PORTION OF AN ATLC 1024 MB HIGH E OF THE CAROLINAS. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...RIDGING IS PUSHING E IN ADVANCE OF DEEP LAYER TROUGHING EXTENDING THROUGH THE NATIONS MID SECTION. DIFFLUENT ZONE BETWEEN THESE UPPER FEATURES ALSO SUPPORTING THE CONVECTION IN THE NW GULF. WSW FLOW IS SPREADING CIRRUS OVER THE CONVECTION E OVER MUCH OF THE GULF EXCEPT THE FAR SE PORTION WHERE VERY DRY AIR EXISTS. CARIBBEAN SEA... REINFORCING SFC HIGH PRES HAS BUILT N OF THE AREA AND IS PRODUCING MODERATE TO STRONG TRADES OVER THE CARIB. A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT AT THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS HIGH ENTERS THE AREA NEAR THE NRN WINDWARD ISLANDS AND CONTINUES W ALONG 17N62W 18N70W. ELONGATED LOW LEVEL CONFLUENT ZONE NOTED BETWEEN THE NE COAST OF NICARAGUA AND DOMINICA THAT LIKELY HAS EMBEDDED ISOLATED SHOWERS. BROAD RIDGING CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS. SW FLOW AROUND THE RIDGE IS ADVECTING SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS NE THROUGH THE BASIN MAINLY E OF 75W. BRISK TRADE FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A 1024 MB SFC HIGH NEAR 32N71W DOMINATES THE WRN ATLC BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE AREA NEAR 32N43W AND CONTINUES S/SW THROUGH 23N45W 17N62W. BROKEN COOL AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS EXIST IN WAKE OF THE FRONT ESPECIALLY N OF 21N. SCATTERED SHOWERS ANTICIPATED WITHIN 60 NM OF THE FRONT. THE DEEPEST CONVECTION WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED TSTMS IS N OF 20N BETWEEN 33W-43W. IN ADDITION TO THE SFC SUPPORT FROM THE FRONT...THIS CONVECTION IS BEING SUPPORTED BY UPPER DIFFLUENCE BETWEEN A SHARP SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC AND RIDGING OVER THE ERN ATLC. THE RECENT STRONG N WINDS BEHIND THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM HAVE SENT A STRONG PULSE OF MEDIUM PERIOD (9-11S) NLY SWELL THROUGH THE AREA. A HIGH SURF ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR NORTH EXPOSED BEACHES OF PUERTO RICO...SEE STATEMENTS FROM WFO SAN JUAN FOR MORE INFO. REMAINDER OF E ATLC IS DOMINATED BY THE SRN PERIPHERY OF HIGH PRES WELL N OF THE AREA. THIS IS PRODUCING ABUNDANT 15-20 KT E/NE WINDS AND FAIR WEATHER E OF 30W. HI PRES IN THE WRN ATLC WILL GRADUALLY SLIDE S AND WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. HIGH PRES WILL WEAKEN OVER THE E ATLC IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT IN THE CENTRAL ATLC THAT WILL PUSH TO A POSITION ALONG 30N34W 15N48W BY LATE TONIGHT. $$ WILLIS