000 AXNT20 KNHC 312321 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT SAT MAR 31 2007 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS... WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2245 UTC. ...THE ITCZ... ITCZ IS CENTERED ALONG 6N10W 4N19W 3N31W 4N52W. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 75 NM OF LINE 2.5N13W ACROSS THE AXIS TO 5.5N17W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 1N-8N BETWEEN 10W-15W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A COLD FRONT IS ENTERING THE FAR NW GULF ALONG THE TEXAS COAST ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG UPPER TROUGH THAT COVERS THE CENTRAL PLAIN STATES MOVING INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS COVERS THE AREA W OF A LINE FROM THE W FLORIDA PANHANDLE NEAR PENSACOLA SW TO NE MEXICO NEAR TAMPICO. THE FRONT WILL MOVE SLIGHTLY EASTWARD TONIGHT AND THEN BEGIN TO DISSIPATE OVER THE GULF WATERS ON MON. THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY AND THE BULK OF THE FRONT WILL MOVE NE TO OVER NEW ENGLAND LATE IN THE DAY MON. THE SURFACE RIDGE CURRENTLY EXTENDING FROM THE W ATLC ACROSS THE E GULF IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN. AN UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF EXTENDING FROM THE YUCATAN CHANNEL TO OVER THE FAR E US AND INTO THE W ATLC. MODERATE/STRONG SE TO S WINDS DOMINATE THE GULF WITH THE EXCEPTION OF NW WINDS W OF THE COLD FRONT. CARIBBEAN SEA... BROAD UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THE CARIBBEAN WITH THE UPPER AXIS EXTENDING ACROSS THE N PORTION OF SOUTH AMERICA THEN THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS IS GIVING THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN SW UPPER FLOW. MODERATE/STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY UPPER AIR COVER THE CARIBBEAN W OF 76W AND THE NE CARIBBEAN E OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS. TROPICAL MOISTURE IS BEING ADVECTED ACROSS THE SE CARIBBEAN. HOWEVER ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST OF VENEZUELA AND OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE CENTRAL ATLC CROSSES THE LESSER ANTILLES NEAR 18N63W TO THE S COAST OF HISPANIOLA NEAR 18N72W. THIS FRONT IS MOVING INTO THE DRY AIR AND HAS NO SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH IT. SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS IS STREAMING ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITHIN 75 NM OF LINE FROM ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES NEAR 16N61W 14N73W TO 16N85W. STRONG EASTERLY TRADE WINDS DOMINATE THE CARIBBEAN. ATLANTIC OCEAN... BROAD UPPER RIDGE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE CARIBBEAN COVERS THE W ATLC W OF 70W. DEEP LAYERED TROUGH COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC N OF 18N FROM 40W-70W WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM A 1004 MB LOW NEAR 29N48W ALONG 25N47W 20N54W TO THE LESSER ANTILLES NEAR 18N63W WHERE IT DISSIPATES IN THE E CARIBBEAN. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH IS TO THE E EXTENDING FROM 20N49W TO BEYOND 32N43W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE E OF THE SURFACE TROUGH N OF 26N FROM 35W-42W. OVERCAST LOW/MID CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90/120 NM OF LINE FROM 26N40W 19N50W TO THE LESSER ANTILLES NEAR GUADELOUPE. BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE TROPICAL ATLC AND CARIBBEAN W OF 30W ANCHORED BY AN UPPER HIGH NEAR 7N50W WITH A RIDGE AXIS ALSO EXTENDING N FROM 20N39W TO BEYOND 32N31W. AN UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE E ATLC EXTENDING ACROSS THE CANARY ISLANDS ALONG THE COAST OF AFRICA TO 10N22W. AN AREA OF VIRTUALLY NO CLOUDS IS N OF 6N E OF A LINE FROM 7N35W ACROSS THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS TO JUST E OF THE CANARY ISLANDS SUGGESTING AN AREA OF AFRICAN DUST. AT THE SURFACE...A RIDGE COVERS THE W ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1025 MB HIGH NEAR 33N73W AND SECOND RIDGE OVER THE E ATLC WITH THE AXIS EXTENDING THROUGH 32N26W TO 20N33W. $$ WALLACE