000 AXNT20 KNHC 301045 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT FRI MAR 30 2007 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS... WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1045 UTC. ...THE ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N13W 4N20W 2N35W EQ50W. SCATTERED CLUSTERS OF MODERATE CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 150 NM N OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 22W-40W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... SFC HIGH PRES NE OF THE AREA CONTINUES TO CONTROL THE GULF THIS MORNING. THIS IS PRODUCING 10-20 KT E TO SE WINDS ACROSS THE BASIN. THE RETURN FLOW IS PRODUCING WIDESPREAD 3-5' E/SE WIND WAVES/SWELL WITH A BIT LARGER SEAS IN THE WRN GULF W OF 92W WHERE MORE FETCH IS AVAILABLE...AND ALSO IN THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA AGAINST THE OPPOSING CURRENT. HI PRES WILL SLIDE SE OFF THE CAROLINAS INTO SAT ALLOWING SE WINDS TO INCREASE SLIGHTLY. DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS AT A MINIMUM OVER THE GULF WHILE TSTMS CONTINUE TO PLAGUE THE NATIONS MIDSECTION AHEAD OF DEEP LAYER TROUGHING NEAR THE 4 CORNERS REGION. RIDGING CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE UPPER LEVELS OVER THE GULF. DRY/STABLE AIR DOMINATES THE BASIN ASIDE FROM BANDS OF UPPER MOISTURE/CIRRUS N OF 27N W OF 87W AND NEAR THE YUCATAN. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... SFC TROUGH EXTENDING THROUGH THE LEEWARD ISLANDS ALONG 18N62W 17N67W CONTINUES TO PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE NE CARIB AS SHOWN VIA THE SAN JUAN RADAR. THIS HAS LED TO A WEAKNESS IN THE TRADE FLOW FOR THE NE PORTION...MAINLY E OF 70W...WHILE MODERATE TO FRESH E TO NE WINDS DOMINATE ELSEWHERE. A BIT STRONGER TRADES EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AS WE MOVE INTO AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRES STRENGTHENS N OF THE AREA...SEE OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST UNDER HEADER MIAOFFNT3 FOR DETAILS. BROAD RIDGING DOMINATES THE UPPER LEVELS FROM ITS ORIGIN OVER THE TROPICAL ATLC. THIS IS ADVECTING SCATTERED TO BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS E TO NE THROUGH MUCH OF THE BASIN. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A WEAK COLD FRONT ENTERS THE AREA AT 32N52W AND CONTINUES WSW TO NEAR 27N70W THEN WNW TO THE FAR N FL COAST AS A DISSIPATING BOUNDARY. THE FRONT IS MARKED BY A RAGGED ROPE CLOUD BUT SFC WINDS SUGGEST THE HIGH PRES N OF THE AREA IS BRIDGING THROUGH THE BOUNDARY. THIS FRONT IS LIKELY RESPONSIBLE FOR THE SMALL AREA OF MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 27N-29N BETWEEN 55W-61W. HIGH PRES PUSHING OFF THE MID ATLC COAST WILL CONTINUE TO BREAK THROUGH THE BOUNDARY INTO TONIGHT. THIS WILL PRODUCE MODERATE TO STRONG N/NE WINDS OVER MUCH OF THE AREA W OF 55W TODAY AS IT INTERACTS WITH THE TROUGH/LOW IN THE CENTRAL ATLC. THE TROUGH IS ALONG 30N49W 20N57W AND CONTINUES INTO THE CARIB TO 17N67W. A 1007 MB LOW IS ATTACHED TO THE TROUGH NEAR 23N53W...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY DEEPEN AS IT MOVES NE TO NEAR 30N45W BY 31/0600 UTC. GALE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE SE PORTION OF THIS LOW BY LATE TONIGHT. IN ADDITION TO THE SFC SUPPORT...UPPER DIFFLUENT ZONE BETWEEN LARGE SCALE UPPER TROUGHING EXTENDING S FROM THE CANADIAN MARITIMES AND RIDGING IN THE CENTRAL ATLC ALONG 38W IS SUPPORTING THE DEEP LAYER CLOUDINESS WITH EMBEDDED SHOWERS/POSSIBLE ISLD TSTMS N OF 23N BETWEEN 41W-53W. THE REMAINDER OF THE E ATLC IS DOMINATED BY THE SRN PERIPHERY OF A 1030 MB HI PRES AREA E OF THE AZORES NEAR 36N19W. THIS IS PRODUCING WIDESPREAD FAIR WEATHER AND MODERATE TO FRESH NE/E WINDS E OF 35W. $$ WILLIS