000
AXNT20 KNHC 282349
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT WED MAR 28 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN 
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE 
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION 
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS... 
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2315 UTC.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 5N10W 2N20W 1N40W EQ50W.  SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 2N-4N BETWEEN 13W-17W.  WIDELY 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 2S-1N BETWEEN 
28W-37W...AND FROM 2S-1N BETWEEN 41W-45W.  

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
RETURN FLOW FROM A 1022 MB WRN ATLANTIC HIGH NEAR 30N76W IS 
PRODUCING 10-15 KT E TO SE SURFACE FLOW OVER MOST OF THE GULF OF 
MEXICO.  NO CONVECTION OR SHOWERS ARE NOTED IN THE GULF.  IN THE 
UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERS THE GULF WITH RIDGE 
AXIS ALONG 90W.  A THIN BAND OF SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS IS OVER 
THE W GULF W OF 90W BETWEEN 22N-26N MOVING E.  EXPECT THE UPPER 
RIDGE TO STAY OVER THE GULF FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  ALSO EXPECT 
CONTINUED WARM SELY SURFACE FLOW OVER THE GULF WITH A CHANCE OF 
SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE W GULF W OF 90W. 

CARIBBEAN...
EVENING AIRMASS THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER N COLOMBIA AND NW 
VENEZUELA FROM 9N-12N BETWEEN 69W-75W DRIFTING N.  A 1010 MB LOW 
HAS DEVELOPED JUST N OF HISPANIOLA NEAR 21N67W.  A SURFACE 
TROUGH EXTENDS SW TO 16N70W.  SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE 
LEEWARD ISLANDS N OF 16N AND E OF 74W TO INCLUDE HISPANIOLA
...PUERTO RICO...AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS.  ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED 
SHOWERS ARE NOTED OVER CENTRAL AMERICA FROM PANAMA TO BELIZE 
MOVING W.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS... A RIDGE IS OVER THE W 
CARIBBEAN W OF 90W.  WLY ZONAL FLOW IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE 
CARIBBEAN E OF 80W.  STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE ENTIRE 
CARIBBEAN SEA.  EXPECT THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO DRIFT E.  ALSO 
EXPECT SHOWERS OVER THE LEEWARD AND WINDWARD ISLANDS DURING THE 
NEXT 24 HOURS...AS WELL AS SHOWERS OVER CENTRAL AMERICA.

ATLANTIC...
A 1022 MB HIGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 30N76W.  THE TAIL END 
OF A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC ALONG 32N38W 24N50W 
23N58W.  SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE FROM 20N-28N BETWEEN 40W-60W.  
A 1029 MB HIGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 36N22W.  A RIDGE AXIS 
EXTENDS SW TO 20N40W.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...WLY FLOW IS OVER 
THE W ATLANTIC N OF 20N AND W OF 60W.  A BROAD RIDGE IS OVER THE 
CENTRAL ATLANTIC N OF 20N BETWEEN 30W-60W.  THE BASE OF A TROUGH 
IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC N OF 8N E OF 30W.  EXPECT SURFACE 
TROUGHING AND SHOWERS IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC OVER THE NEXT 24 
HOURS.  ALSO EXPECT MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES OVER THE E ATLC.   
       
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FORMOSA