000 AXNT20 KNHC 281018 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT WED MAR 28 2007 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS... WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0945 UTC. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N12W 3N18W ALONG THE EQUATOR FROM 32W-46W TO INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 1S49W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 4N TO S OF THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 20W-52W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... UPPER LEVEL LOW IS MOVING ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WITH THE UPPER TROUGH COVERING THE ENTIRE GULF N OF 23N GENERATING RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS WELL INLAND OVER THE CENTRAL US. UPPER TROPICAL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO STREAM ACROSS THE S GULF BUT IS NOT GENERATING ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY. STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR CONTINUE TO DOMINATE ACROSS THE GULF INCLUDING THE FLORIDA PENINSULA THUS FURTHER LIMITING ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY. MODERATE/STRONG EASTERLY SURFACE WINDS FROM THE W ATLC ACROSS THE GULF CONTINUE TO BRING IN LOW LEVEL WIDELY ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER EXTREME S FLORIDA...THE FLORIDA KEYS AND THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA E OF 83W. SURFACE RIDGE CONTINUES TO EXTEND FROM THE W ATLC OVER THE E GULF E OF 90W. CARIBBEAN... UPPER RIDGE IN THE E PACIFIC NOW COVERS THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 75W AS THE UPPER LOW SHIFTS FURTHER E TO JUST N OF PUERTO RICO WITH THE UPPER TROUGH CONTINUING S TO NEAR 14N67W BRINGING STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR INTO THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 67W. A SURFACE REFLECTION IN THE FORM OF A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM NEAR 15N66W ACROSS E PUERTO RICO INTO THE W ATLC TO NEAR 22N62W ENHANCING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY IN THE W ATLC AND N OF 17N E OF 70W TO OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS N OF 13N E OF 66W TO OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES E OF 65W. THE SE CARIBBEAN IS UNDER A BROAD UPPER RIDGE THAT IS ANCHORED IN THE TROPICAL ATLC GIVING THE AREA SW UPPER FLOW AND ADVECTING TROPICAL MOISTURE ENHANCING THE SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES. STRONG EASTERLY WINDS ARE OVER THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 75W WHILE THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN IS UNDER LIGHT/MODERATE SURFACE WINDS. ATLANTIC... UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS CENTRAL CUBA NEAR 22N78W INTO THE W ATLC TO BEYOND 32N73W WITH A NARROW UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 30N63W TO AN UPPER LOW JUST N OF PUERTO RICO NEAR 20N66W INTO THE E CARIBBEAN. A SURFACE REFLECTION IN THE FORM OF A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 22N62W ACROSS PUERTO RICO INTO THE E CARIBBEAN. MODERATE/STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY UPPER AIR COVER THE AREA WITHIN 200 NM W OF THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS. UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE W TROPICAL ATLC ALONG 44W TO 26N COVERING THE SW AND CENTRAL ATLC BETWEEN 25W-60W. DIVERGENCE TO THE W OF THE UPPER RIDGE IS ENHANCING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 25N BETWEEN 57W-68W. DEEP LAYERED TROUGH MOVING OVER THE N/CENTRAL ATLC IS N OF 27N FROM 35W-55W WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ENTERING THE REGION NEAR 32N39W EXTENDING SW ALONG 26N45W TO 23N52W WHERE IT DISSIPATES TO NEAR 23N58W. AN UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE FAR E ATLC N OF 20N E OF 25W TO INLAND OVER AFRICA. BROAD SURFACE RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE E ATLC E OF THE COLD FRONT ANCHORED BY A 1032 MB HIGH SE OF THE AZORES. AN UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED BY AN UPPER HIGH NEAR 9N42W COVERING THE TROPICAL ATLC INTO THE SE CARIBBEAN. AS A RESULT...THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC REMAINS RATHER TRANQUIL WITH FAIR WEATHER CLOUDS. THE FIRST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES OF THE DAY SHOW THE AREA OF AFRICAN DUST REMAINING FROM 8N-20N E OF 28W INCLUDING THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS BUT IS BEGINNING TO DISPERSE. $$ PAW