000 AXNT20 KNHC 271008 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT TUE MAR 27 2007 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS... WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0915 UTC. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N10W 3N18W ALONG THE EQUATOR FROM 29W-37W THEN ALONG 2N47W 1N51W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 120/150 NM OF THE AXIS W OF 23W TO INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... UPPER LEVEL LOW IS MOVING ACROSS TEXAS WITH THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE W GULF N OF 21N W OF 91W GENERATING RAIN WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS INLAND OVER TEXAS AND NW LOUISIANA. NARROW UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE E PACIFIC REGION ACROSS S MEXICO/THE E BAY OF CAMPECHE AND THE GULF TO OVER THE FAR E US CONTINUING TO ADVECT TROPICAL MOISTURE OVER MEXICO AND INTO THE CENTRAL GULF GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS MAINLY N OF 27N FROM 90W-95W. MODERATE/STRONG EASTERLY SURFACE WINDS FROM THE W ATLC ACROSS THE GULF CONTINUE TO BRING IN LOW LEVEL WIDELY ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER EXTREME S FLORIDA...THE FLORIDA KEYS AND THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA E OF 83W. SURFACE RIDGE CONTINUES TO EXTEND FROM THE NW ATLC OVER MUCH OF THE GULF. CARIBBEAN... UPPER RIDGE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS OVER THE FAR NW CARIBBEAN W OF 80W. AN UPPER LOW IS JUST W OF HAITI NEAR 19N74W WITH THE UPPER TROUGH CONTINUING S TO NEAR 12N76W BRINGING STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR INTO THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 70W. A SURFACE REFLECTION IN THE FORM OF A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 12N76W ALONG 16N72W THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TO 21N67W ENHANCING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF 17N FROM 60W-74W WITH SOME POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER E CUBA AND JAMAICA. REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN IS UNDER A BROAD UPPER RIDGE THAT IS ANCHORED IN THE TROPICAL ATLC GIVING THE AREA SW UPPER FLOW AND ADVECTING TROPICAL MOISTURE WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 17N E OF 71W TO OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES. STRONG EASTERLY WINDS ARE N OF 15N W OF 75W WHILE THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN IS UNDER LIGHT/MODERATE SURFACE WINDS. ATLANTIC... UPPER RIDGE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS OVER THE FAR W ATLC W OF 75W. DEEP LAYERED TROUGH MOVING E OVER THE W ATLC INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC IS N OF 26N FROM 42W-72W WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ENTERING THE REGION NEAR 32N45W EXTENDING WESTWARD ALONG 27N52W TO 26N61W WHERE IT DISSIPATES TO NEAR 27N73W. MODERATE/ STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY UPPER AIR COVER THE AREA WITHIN 225 NM OF LINE 31N71W ACROSS CUBA NEAR 22N78W WITH COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS NW OF FRONT. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 200 NM E OF THE FRONT N OF 26N. THE SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE SW ATLC EXTENDS FROM 21N67W THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE INTO THE CARIBBEAN GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 24N FROM 64W-73W. AN UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE E ATLC N OF 20N E OF 30W TO THE COAST OF AFRICA. BROAD SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE E ATLC E OF THE COLD FRONT ANCHORED BY A 1032 MB HIGH S OF THE AZORES. AN UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED BY AN UPPER HIGH NEAR 4N39W COVERING THE TROPICAL ATLC AND THE E CARIBBEAN. AS A RESULT...THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC REMAINS RATHER TRANQUIL WITH FAIR WEATHER CLOUDS. THE FIRST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES OF THE DAY SHOW AN AREA OF AFRICAN DUST REMAINING FROM 7N-20N E OF 25W INCLUDING THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. $$ PAW