000 AXNT20 KNHC 270022 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT MON MAR 26 2007 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS... WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N13W EQ30W EQ45W AND INTO NE BRAZIL NEAR 3S50W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF W AFRICA FROM 3S-6N BETWEEN THE PRIME MERIDIAN AND 8W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS ALSO ALONG THE COAST OF W AFRICA FROM 5N-10N BETWEEN 9W-12W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 2S-3N BETWEEN 28W-45W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... RETURN FLOW FROM A 1032 MB WRN ATLANTIC SURFACE HIGH NEAR 39N68W IS PRODUCING 10-15 KT E TO SE SURFACE FLOW OVER MOST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. A TIGHTER SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS PRODUCING 20-25 KT E WINDS OVER THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. A SURFACE TROUGH OVER S TEXAS IS PRODUCING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION INLAND FROM 28N-32N BETWEEN 97W-99W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A RIDGE COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH RIDGE AXIS ALONG 88W. A 90-110 KT JET STREAM W OF THE RIDGE AXIS...ALONG 20N100W 30N92W...IS RESPONSIBLE FOR BROKEN TO OVERCAST HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE W GULF W OF 90W. EXPECT THE THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO FLATTEN OUT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND THUS HAVE WLY ZONAL FLOW. ALSO EXPECT THE SURFACE TROUGH TO MOVE E TO LOUISIANA...MISSISSIPPI...AND THE N GULF COAST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH CONVECTION. CARIBBEAN... A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE MONA PASSAGE TO 16N70W TO 14N76W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER PUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA FROM 16N-20N BETWEEN 66W-72W. ELSEWHERE... SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE NOTED OVER CENTRAL AMERICA FROM W PANAMA TO BELIZE MOVING SW. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS IS CENTERED OFF THE COAST OF HISPANIOLA NEAR 17N73W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST HIGH CLOUDS COVERS THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 73W. EXPECT THE UPPER LEVEL LOW TO DRIFT E... AND AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH TO MOVE E TO HONDURAS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ALSO EXPECT THE SURFACE TROUGH TO DRIFT E AND PRODUCE CONVECTION OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE SHOWERS OVER CENTRAL AMERICA WILL ALSO CONTINUE. ATLANTIC... A TIGHT SURFACE GRADIENT IS PRODUCING STRONG 20-30 KT NE WINDS ARE OVER THE BAHAMAS. FURTHER E...THE TAIL END OF A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC ALONG 32N50W 28N60W 27N70W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ARE N OF THE FRONT. AN EARLIER SURGE...NOW IN THE FORM OF A PREFRONTAL TROUGH...IS ALONG 30N51W 25N55W 22N70W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 26N-30N BETWEEN 45W-53W...AND FROM 20N-23N BETWEEN 64W-72W. A 1028 MB HIGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 36N29W. A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS SW TO 20N50W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A RIDGE IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC AND FLORIDA W OF 75W. THE BASE OF A TROUGH IS N OF 25N BETWEEN 45W-60W. A RIDGE IS N OF 20N BETWEEN 30W-45W. A TROUGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC N OF 20N BETWEEN 15W-30W. EXPECT THE STRONG NE WINDS NE OF THE BAHAMAS AND HISPANIOLA TO PERSIST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ALSO EXPECT HIGH PRESSURE TO MOVE SLOWLY BETWEEN THE AZORES AND PORTUGAL AND KEEP MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES OVER THE E ATLC. TROUGHING/SHOWERS IN THE CENTRAL ATLC WILL ALSO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. $$ FORMOSA