000
AXNT20 KNHC 250532
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT SUN MAR 25 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN 
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE 
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION 
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS... 
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0345 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N10W 3N18W 1N25W CROSSING THE 
EQUATOR NEAR 37W. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 
4N TO S OF THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 4W-8W. SMALL CLUSTERS OF 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE 
WITHIN 200/250 NM OF THE AXIS FROM 14W-34W. 

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
HIGH AMPLIFIED UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE E PACIFIC REGION 
ACROSS S MEXICO AND THE BAY OF CAMPECHE OVER THE CENTRAL GULF TO 
OVER THE E US ADVECTING TROPICAL MOISTURE ACROSS THE W GULF W OF 
93W...ALTHOUGH THERE IS NO SHOWER ACTIVITY. STRONG SUBSIDENCE 
AND DRY UPPER AIR COVER THE SE GULF. STRONG EASTERLY SURFACE 
WINDS FROM THE W ATLC ACROSS THE GULF CONTINUE TO BRING IN LOW 
LEVEL ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER S FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS. 
STRONG SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC OVER THE GULF WITH 
THE AXIS EXTENDING FROM GEORGIA SW TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. 

CARIBBEAN...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM THE W ATLC EXTENDS ACROSS CUBA NEAR 
21N79W TO E OF HONDURAS/NICARAGUA NEAR 14N82W BRINGING STRONG 
SUBSIDENCE AND DRY UPPER AIR INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN W OF 78W. A 
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC ACROSS HAITI/WINDWARD 
PASSAGE NEAR 20N73W TO 16N75W GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ 
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF 16N FROM 72W-78W WITH SOME LOW LEVEL 
ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. THE REMAINDER OF THE 
CARIBBEAN IS UNDER A BROAD UPPER RIDGE THAT EXTENDS FROM THE 
TROPICAL ATLC GIVING THE AREA SW UPPER FLOW WITH STRONG 
SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR AT ALL LEVELS PRODUCING CLEAR SKIES. 
HOWEVER...SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THAT ARE 
BEING GENERATED INLAND OVER COLOMBIA ARE DRIFTING N ALONG THE 
COAST AND IN THE GULF OF VENEZUELA. MODERATE/STRONG EASTERLY 
TRADE WINDS CONTINUE ACROSS THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN BUT WILL BEGIN 
TO WEAKEN LATE SUN.   

ATLANTIC...
BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE W ATLC EXTENDING FROM 30N62W WSW 
TO THE BAHAMAS NEAR 24N76W INTO THE CARIBBEAN TO ACROSS CUBA 
NEAR 21N79W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY UPPER AIR ARE NW OF THE 
TROUGH AXIS. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 29N57W ALONG 25N65W 
INTO THE CARIBBEAN OVER HAITI/WINDWARD PASSAGE NEAR 20N73W 
GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 24N 
FROM 58W-77W AND SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 120 NM OF LINE 25N50W 
TO 22N68W. GENERALLY UPPER WESTERLY ZONAL FLOW COVERS THE 
REMAINDER OF THE ATLC BETWEEN 10N-30N WITH AN UPPER TROUGH JUST 
DIPPING OVER THE NE ATLC FROM 16W-42W N OF 28N. HOWEVER...THE 
ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS N OF THE REGION. BROAD 
SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE ATLC WITH A WEAKNESS IN THE 
IMMEDIATE AREA OF THE SURFACE TROUGH AND ANCHORED BY A 1030 MB 
HIGH IN THE NE/CENTRAL ATLC. AN E/W UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE 
TROPICAL ATLC EXTENDING FROM OVER AFRICA ALONG 9W/10W TO OVER 
SOUTH AMERICA. AS A RESULT...THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC REMAINS 
RATHER TRANQUIL WITH FAIR WEATHER CLOUDS ESPECIALLY E OF 50W. 
       
$$
PAW