000
AXNT20 KNHC 241032
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SAT MAR 24 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN 
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE 
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION 
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS... 
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0945 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 9N10W 2N19W 2N36W CROSSING THE 
EQUATOR NEAR 46W. LARGE CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG 
CONVECTION ARE FROM 6N TO JUST S OF THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 6W-28W. 
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 150 NM OF 
THE AXIS FROM 28W-46W. 

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
NARROW AMPLIFIED UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE E PACIFIC REGION 
ACROSS S MEXICO AND THE W/CENTRAL GULF TO JUST E OF THE 
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ADVECTING TROPICAL MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA W 
OF 88W...ALTHOUGH THERE IS NO SHOWER ACTIVITY. BROAD UPPER 
TROUGH OVER THE W ATLC EXTENDS OVER THE FAR E GULF BRINGING 
STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY UPPER AIR TO THAT AREA. A SURFACE 
RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE W ATLC COVERS THE GULF USHERING IN 
MODERATE/STRONG EASTERLY WINDS ACROSS THE GULF. 

CARIBBEAN...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM THE W ATLC EXTENDS ACROSS CUBA TO AN 
UPPER LOW OVER THE CAYMAN ISLANDS NEAR 19N83W CONTINUING S OVER 
HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BRINGING STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY UPPER AIR 
INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN W OF 80W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED 
THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 150/175 NM OF A LINE FROM 14N81W ACROSS 
CUBA AND THE WINDWARD PASSAGE NEAR 20N76W. THE REMAINDER OF THE 
CARIBBEAN IS UNDER A BROAD UPPER RIDGE THAT EXTENDS FROM THE 
TROPICAL ATLC GIVING THE AREA SW UPPER FLOW WITH STRONG 
SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR AT ALL LEVELS PRODUCING CLEAR SKIES. 
MODERATE/STRONG EASTERLY TRADE WINDS PREVAIL ACROSS THE ENTIRE 
CARIBBEAN.  

ATLANTIC...
BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE W ATLC EXTENDING INTO THE REGION 
JUST E OF BERMUDA SW TO A WEAK UPPER LOW NEAR 25N75W ACROSS THE 
BAHAMAS AND CUBA INTO THE CARIBBEAN TO A SECOND UPPER LOW NEAR 
19N83W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY UPPER AIR ARE W OF THE TROUGH 
AXIS. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 31N65W TO OVER HAITI NEAR 
19N73W. DIFFLUENCE TO THE E OF THE UPPER TROUGH IS GENERATING AN 
AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 175 NM 
OF LINE 26N60W 24N66W TO OVER THE GREATER ANTILLES NEAR 21N75W. 
UPPER WESTERLY ZONAL FLOW COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC 
BETWEEN 10N-30N WITH AN UPPER TROUGH JUST DIPPING OVER THE NE 
ATLC FROM 23W-40W. HOWEVER...THE ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY 
DOES NOT ENTER THE REGION. A SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE ATLC 
WITH A WEAKNESS IN THE IMMEDIATE AREA OF THE SURFACE TROUGH AND 
ANCHORED BY A 1033 MB HIGH IN THE N/CENTRAL ATLC. AN E/W UPPER 
RIDGE COVERS THE TROPICAL ATLC EXTENDING FROM OVER AFRICA ALONG 
8W/9W TO OVER SOUTH AMERICA. AS A RESULT...THE REMAINDER OF THE 
ATLC REMAINS RATHER TRANQUIL WITH FAIR WEATHER CLOUDS ESPECIALLY 
E OF 50W. 
       
$$
PAW