000
AXNT20 KNHC 231750
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT FRI MAR 23 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN 
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE 
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION 
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS... 
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1715 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 5.5N10W 3.5N20W 3.5N30W 4N40W AND 
INTO NE BRAZIL NEAR 2S50W.  SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG 
CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF W AFRICA WITHIN 120 NM OF 
5.2N13W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITH ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS 
FURTHER WEST WITHIN 90 NM OF 3.5N18W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 75 NM OF 0.3N27.5W AND WITHIN 90 NM OF 
3N33.5W.  A LARGE AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG 
CONVECTION IS SOUTH OF THE ITCZ AND NORTH OF THE EQUATOR FROM 
3.5W TO 8.8W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
RETURN FLOW IS PRODUCING 15-20 KT SE TO E WINDS OVER THE GULF OF 
MEXICO.  SLIGHTLY STRONGER...20 KT WINDS...ARE REPORTED OVER THE 
STRAITS OF FLORIDA.  SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SCATTERED LOCALLY 
BROKEN LOW CLOUDS FROM 24N TO 27.5N FROM 85W TO 89W.  SCATTERED 
LOW CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED LOCALLY BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS NORTH OF 
24N W OF 91W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A RIDGE WITH SIGNIFICANT 
UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER THE W GULF W OF 90W.  A TROUGH WITH 
STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE E GULF E OF 90W.  EXPECT THE UPPER 
LEVEL RIDGE TO DOMINATE THE ENTIRE GULF OF MEXICO WITHIN 24 
HOURS.  ALSO EXPECT THE SAME SURFACE PATTERN TO PERSIST FOR THE 
NEXT 24 HOURS. SHOWERS HAVE DIMINISHED OVER THE SE GULF AND W 
CUBA.

CARIBBEAN...
25-30 KT WINDS ARE NOTED ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA.  10-20 
KT TRADES DOMINATE THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA.  A BAND 
OF LOW CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS EXTENDS FROM EAST CUBA TO 
EAST HONDURAS.  SCATTERED CUMULUS CLOUDS ARE DEVELOPING IN THE 
TRADES OVER NICARAGUA...HONDURAS...BELIZE AND MOST OF GUATEMALA.
IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A TROUGH IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH 
TROUGH AXIS ALONG 80W.  STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN 
SEA EXCEPT FOR THE BAND OF SHOWERS FROM EAST CUBA TO EAST 
HONDURAS. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PERSIST OVER THE CENTRAL 
CARIBBEAN DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
 
ATLANTIC...
UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS JUST NORTHEAST OF THE 
BAHAMAS AND IS CAUSING LIFTING AND CONVECTION IN THE AREA FROM 
20N TO 26N FROM 73W TO 63W WITH MULTI LAYERED CLOUDS FLOWING 
EAST NORTHEAST IN A 360 NM WIDE BAND ALONG A LINE FROM 23N72W TO 
31N43W. A 1033 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC 
NEAR 38N45W.  STRONGER THAN NORMAL TRADES  ARE NOTED FROM 
10N-30N BETWEEN 30W-62W WITH SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS.  THE LATEST 
QUIKSCAT IMAGERY DEPICTS A SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE E ATLANTIC 
ALONG 27N23W 20N27W.  AGAIN AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED 
NEARBY AT 30N20W.  SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 240 NM 
E OF THE UPPER SYSTEM.         

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LL