000 AXNT20 KNHC 231052 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT FRI MAR 23 2007 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS... WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1015 UTC. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 5N10W 2N20W 1N30W 1N40W AND INTO NE BRAZIL NEAR 2S45W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF W AFRICA FROM 4N-7N BETWEEN 10W-14W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FURTHER W FROM 2N-4N BETWEEN 16W-19W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 1N-6N BETWEEN 26W-40W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... RETURN FLOW IS PRODUCING 15-20 KT SE TO E WINDS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. SLIGHTLY STRONGER...25 KT WINDS...ARE REPORTED OVER THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. NIGHT CHANNEL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS AND THE SE GULF OF MEXICO S OF 26N E OF 87W. MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS OVER THE CENTRAL GULF. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A RIDGE WITH SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER THE W GULF W OF 90W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST HIGH CLOUDS ARE NOTED OVER TEXAS AND THE NW GULF N OF 24N W OF 94W. A TROUGH WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE E GULF E OF 90W. EXPECT THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO DOMINATE THE ENTIRE GULF OF MEXICO WITHIN 24 HOURS. ALSO EXPECT THE SAME SURFACE PATTERN TO PERSIST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS TO REMAIN OVER THE SE GULF...N YUCATAN PENINSULA...AND W CUBA. CARIBBEAN... A 1006 MB LOW WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS IS CENTERED OVER COLOMBIA NEAR 4N74W. 25-30 KT CYCLONIC WINDS ARE NOTED ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA. 10-20 KT TRADES DOMINATE THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. A BAND OF LOW CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS EXTENDS FROM HISPANIOLA TO HONDURAS. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ALSO INLAND OVER CENTRAL AMERICA...ESPECIALLY OVER HIGHER ELEVATIONS...FROM HONDURAS TO GUATEMALA MOVING W WITH THE TRADES. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A TROUGH IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH TROUGH AXIS ALONG 80W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA EXCEPT OVER HISPANIOLA...AND JAMAICA. EXPECT THE SHOWERS TO PERSIST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ALSO EXPECT TRADEWIND SHOWERS TO CONTINUE. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL ALSO PERSIST OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ATLANTIC... A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE BAHAMAS AND W ATLANTIC ALONG 28N77W 22N75W. SCATTERED SHOWERS EXTEND E OF TROUGH FROM 20N-28N BETWEEN 62W-75W. A SMALL UPPER LEVEL LOW IS IN THE SAME GENERAL LOCATION CENTERED NEAR 24N80W. A 1034 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 38N48W. STRONGER THAN NORMAL TRADES ARE NOTED FROM 10N-30N BETWEEN 30W-62W WITH SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS. THE LATEST QUIKSCAT IMAGERY DEPICTS A SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE E ATLANTIC ALONG 27N23W 20N27W. AGAIN AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEARBY AT 30N20W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 240 NM E OF THE UPPER SYSTEM. $$ FORMOSA