000
AXNT20 KNHC 230555
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT FRI MAR 23 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN 
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE 
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION 
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS... 
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0515 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N10W 3N20W 1N30W 1N40W AND INTO NE 
BRAZIL NEAR 2S47W.  SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE 
COAST OF W AFRICA FROM 4N-7N BETWEEN 8W-11W.  SCATTERED MODERATE 
TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 3N-5N BETWEEN 13W-17W.  
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 2N-6N BETWEEN 
32W-40W.  

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
RETURN FLOW IS PRODUCING 15-20 KT SE TO E WINDS OVER THE GULF OF 
MEXICO.  SLIGHTLY STRONGER...25 KT WINDS...ARE REPORTED OVER THE 
STRAITS OF FLORIDA.  NIGHT CHANNEL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS 
SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE 
FLORIDA KEYS AND SE GULF OF MEXICO S OF 26N AND E OF 87W.  
MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS OVER THE CENTRAL GULF.  IN THE UPPER 
LEVELS...A RIDGE WITH SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER 
THE W GULF W OF 90W.  BROKEN TO OVERCAST HIGH CLOUDS ARE NOTED 
OVER TEXAS AND THE NW GULF N OF 24N AND W OF 94W.  A TROUGH WITH 
STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE E GULF E OF 90W.  EXPECT THE THE 
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO DOMINATE THE ENTIRE GULF OF MEXICO WITHIN 
24 HOURS.  ALSO EXPECT THE SAME SURFACE PATTERN TO PERSIST FOR 
THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS TO REMAIN OVER THE SE 
GULF...N YUCATAN PENINSULA...AND W CUBA.      

CARIBBEAN...
A 1006 MB LOW WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS IS CENTERED OVER N COLOMBIA 
NEAR 8N74W.  25-30 KT CYCLONIC WINDS ARE NOTED ALONG THE COAST 
OF N COLOMBIA.  10-20 KT TRADES DOMINATE THE REMAINDER OF THE 
CARIBBEAN SEA.  A BAND OF LOW CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS 
EXTENDS FROM HISPANIOLA TO HONDURAS.  SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ALSO 
INLAND OVER CENTRAL AMERICA...ESPECIALLY OVER HIGHER 
ELEVATIONS...FROM PANAMA TO GUATEMALA MOVING W WITH THE TRADES.  
IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A TROUGH IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH 
TROUGH AXIS ALONG 80W.  STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN 
SEA EXCEPT OVER HISPANIOLA...AND JAMAICA.  EXPECT THE SHOWERS TO 
PERSIST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  ALSO EXPECT TRADEWIND SHOWERS TO 
CONTINUE.  THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL ALSO PERSIST OVER THE 
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
 
ATLANTIC...
THE WRN ATLC IS DOMINATED BY THE SRN PERIPHERY OF A STRONG 1037 
MB HIGH LOCATED WELL NE OF BERMUDA. A COUPLE OF SURFACE TROUGHS 
ARE EMBEDDED IN THIS RIDGE HELPING TO TIGHTEN THE GRADIENT AND 
PRODUCE GUSTY ELY WINDS/WIND WAVES. THE FIRST TROUGH IS IN THE 
BAHAMAS ALONG 75W FROM 24N-29N.  A SMALL MID LEVEL LOW IS ABOVE 
THIS SURFACE TROUGH AT 24N76W.  ASSOCIATED NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND 
TSTMS ARE WITHIN 240 NM E OF THE TROUGH.  SECOND SURFACE TROUGH 
IS THE REMNANTS OF A LONG LIVED STATIONARY FRONT...NOW EXTENDING 
FROM 28N53W TO HISPANIOLA NEAR 20N70W.  ASSOCIATED NUMEROUS 
SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE WITHIN 240 NM N OF THIS TROUGH.  MUCH OF 
THE REMAINDER OF THE DISCUSSION AREA IS DOMINATED BY MODERATE 
TRADE FLOW S OF A 1029 MB HIGH BETWEEN THE AZORES AND PORTUGAL. 
INTERRUPTING THE RIDGING IS A WEAK SFC REFLECTION OF AN UPPER 
LOW SPINNING NEAR 30N22W.  LIGHT SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 150 
NM N AND E OF THE UPPER SYSTEM. 

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FORMOSA