000 AXNT20 KNHC 221726 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT THU MAR 22 2007 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS... WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N11W 2N20W 1N35W EQ45W AND INTO NE BRAZIL NEAR 1S49W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 250 NM N OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 28W-35W. SIMILAR CLUSTERS NOTED FROM 2N-5N BETWEEN 39W-46W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... STRONG 1036 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED JUST SE OF THE CANADIAN MARITIMES CONTINUES TO RIDGE SW OVER THE GOMEX. THIS IS PRODUCING WIDESPREAD 15-25 KT E TO SE WINDS ACROSS THE BASIN...WHICH IN TURN ARE PRODUCING MODERATE 5-8 FT WIND WAVES/SWELL. HOWEVER...LARGER SHORT PERIOD SEAS SHOULD BE ANTICIPATED IN THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA AGAINST THE OPPOSING CURRENT. ABUNDANT FAIR WEATHER SEEN OVER MUCH OF THE GULF THIS AFTERNOON WITH FEW TO SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS TRAVERSING THE AREA WITH THE E/SE FLOW. ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY ANTICIPATED IN A WEAK LOW LEVEL CONFLUENT ZONE BETWEEN CANCUN AND THE FLORIDA KEYS. ALOFT...MID TO UPPER RIDGING IS OVER THE THE WRN PORTION WITH THE AXIS EXTENDING N THROUGH MEX AND TX ALONG 99W. THIS IS PRODUCING NW UPPER FLOW W OF 88W. A SHORTWAVE MOSTLY MID LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE ERN GULF WHICH IS HELPING TO SUPPORT THE SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER SFL. MODERATE TO STRONG E/SE SFC WINDS CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIVES S INTO THE NW CARIB. CARIBBEAN... MOST ACTIVE WEATHER IN THE CARIB CONTINUES TO BE IN THE VICINITY OF THE WINDWARD PASSAGE...ERN CUBA...HISPANIOLA...AND TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS. SFC TROUGH REMAINS IN THIS AREA...EXTENDING WSW FROM THE WRN ATLC ALONG 20N70W 19N79W. LIFT AHEAD OF MID TO UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALSO SUPPORTING THIS ACTIVITY. ASSOCIATED SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE FROM 17N-23N BETWEEN 67W-77W. LIGHTNING DATA ALSO SUPPORTS ISOLATED TSTMS EMBEDDED IN THIS AREA AS WELL. OTHERWISE THE CARIB IS FAIRLY QUIET WITH TYPICAL PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PUSHING WWD WITH MODERATE TRADES. UPPER RIDGING CONTINUES TO EXTEND INTO THE ERN CARIB FROM ITS ORIGIN OVER THE TROPICAL ATLC. OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...LOOK FOR MODERATE TRADEWINDS TO CONTINUE WHILE SHOWERS PERSIST IN THE LOW LEVEL CONFLUENT ZONE BETWEEN ERN HONDURAS AND HISPANIOLA. CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS WARRANT THE POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED TSTMS IN THIS REGION AS WELL...AS SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR ALOFT FILTERS IN WITH MID LEVEL TROUGH FROM GULF. ATLANTIC... LARGE SCALE PATTERN OVER THE WRN ATLC IS DOMINATED BY THE SRN PERIPHERY OF THE STRONG 1035 MB HIGH JUST SE OF NOVA SCOTIA. A COUPLE OF SFC TROUGHS ARE EMBEDDED IN THIS WHICH ARE HELPING TO TIGHTEN THE GRADIENT LEADING TO STRONG ELY WINDS/WIND WAVES. THE FIRST TROUGH IS THROUGH THE BAHAMAS ALONG 27N76W 23N77W. THIS A REFLECTION OF A SMALL MID LEVEL LOW BETWEEN SFL AND WRN BAHAMAS. ASSOCIATED NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE FROM 24N-28N BETWEEN 72W-78W. SECOND TROUGH IS THE REMNANTS OF A LONG LIVED STATIONARY FRONT...NOW ALONG 29N53W 24N60W TO THE COAST OF HISPANIOLA NEAR 20N73W. ASIDE FROM THE ACTIVITY NOTED IN THE CARIB SECTION...CLOUDINESS/SHOWERS WITH THIS BOUNDARY ARE MOST CONCENTRATED N OF 23N BETWEEN 53W-59W. MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE DISCUSSION AREA IS DOMINATED BY MODERATE TRADE FLOW S OF A 1031 MB HIGH BETWEEN THE AZORES AND PORTUGAL. THE EXCEPTION REMAINS THE UPPER LOW NEAR 29N27W THAT HAS A SFC REFLECTION AS A TROUGH ALONG 31N27W 24N25W. LIGHT SHOWERS POSSIBLE WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THIS TROUGH...BUT SHOULD DIMINISH THROUGH SAT AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES NE OF THE AREA. HI PRES N OF THE AREA WILL KEEP MODERATE TO STRONG TRADES OVER MUCH OF THE ATLC AREA OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. EMBEDDED TROUGHING NE OF THE TURKS AND CAICOS WILL SUPPORT LINGERING SHOWERS IN THE AREA FROM 18N-28N BETWEEN 53W-75W INTO THE WEEKEND. $$ WILLIS