000 AXNT20 KNHC 202301 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT TUE MAR 20 2007 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS... WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2215 UTC. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N7W 3N10W 2N39W 2N42W ACROSS THE EQUATOR NEAR 47W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 5N TO JUST S OF THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 17W-43W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS MOVING OVER THE W GULF W OF 85W. THE BROAD UPPER LEVEL OVER THE W ATLC COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. STRONG SURFACE E TO SE WINDS CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE GULF WITH SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE W ATLC AND THE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING ALONG THE N GULF COAST STATES TO TEXAS AND NE MEXICO. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE COVERS THE NW WITH MODERATE SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR IN THE LOWEST LEVELS CONTINUE TO KEEP THE GULF UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. HOWEVER WITH THE STRONG EASTERLY SURFACE FLOW IS USHERING IN SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND INTO THE FAR E GULF. CARIBBEAN... THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER THE E GULF OF MEXICO AND THE W ATLC COVERS THE FAR N CARIBBEAN FROM HISPANIOLA TO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL WITH THE SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING TO OVER THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. OVERCAST LOW/MOD CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE N OF 17N FROM 70W-79W INCLUDING JAMAICA. MODERATE/STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR AT ALL LEVELS COVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN LEAVING THAT AREA WITH ONLY ISOLATED LOW CLOUDS. THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN IS DOMINATED BY A BROAD UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE TROPICAL ATLC GIVING MOST THE AREA SW TO W UPPER FLOW. STRONG EASTERLY TRADE WINDS CONTINUE ACROSS THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. ATLANTIC... BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE W ATLC WITH A DEVELOPING UPPER LOW JUST N OF THE TURKS AND CAICOS. THE ASSOCIATED STATIONARY FRONT ENTERS THE AREA NEAR 32N51W EXTENDING SW ALONG 27N58W TO 23N69W WHERE IT CONTINUES AS A SURFACE TROUGH TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. OVERCAST CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED RAIN/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 120/150 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT/TROUGH TO OVER HISPANIOLA AND E CUBA. STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY UPPER AIR CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE AREA. HOWEVER...STRONG EASTERLY SURFACE FLOW IS USHERING IN SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE THE N CARIBBEAN ISLANDS N OF 24N AND OVER FLORIDA PENINSULA. A SURFACE RIDGE IS EXTENDS FROM THE N/CENTRAL ATLC SW THROUGH A 1033 MB HIGH NEAR 33N70W TO OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE THE N GULF COAST STATES. BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COVERS THE E ATLC WITH THE AXIS EXTENDING THROUGH 31N25W SW ALONG 23N31W INTO THE TROPICS TO NEAR 14N38W. LARGE SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE E ATLC EXTENDING FROM A 1038 MB HIGH N OF THE AZORES THROUGH 32N38W TO 12N50W. THE TROPICAL ATLC IS DOMINATED BY A BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE CARIBBEAN/W TROPICAL ATLC AND SECOND E/W RIDGE ANCHORED INLAND OVER AFRICA. $$ WALLACE