000 AXNT20 KNHC 192333 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT MON MAR 19 2007 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS... WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N10W 3N19W 4N33W ALONG THE EQUATOR NEAR W OF 45W TO INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS S OF 2N ACROSS THE EQUATOR E OF 3W ACROSS THE PRIME MERIDIAN. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM THE EQUATOR TO 5N BETWEEN 15W-20W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS OVER MEXICO AND THE CENTRAL PLAIN STATES COVERING THE W GULF W OF 90W. THE BROAD UPPER LEVEL OVER THE W ATLC AND FAR E US COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. STRONG SURFACE E TO SE WINDS DOMINATE THE GULF WITH SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE W ATLC WITH THE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS ALONG THE N GULF COAST STATES TO TEXAS. IN THE WAKE OF THE MOST RECENT FRONTAL PASSAGE IS MODERATE SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR IN THE LOWEST LEVELS ARE KEEPING THE GULF UNDER CLEAR SKIES AND MILD TEMPERATURES. CARIBBEAN... THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER THE E GULF OF MEXICO AND THE W ATLC COVERS THE NW CARIBBEAN ALTHOUGH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS IN THE W ATLC. HOWEVER...OVERCAST LOW/MOD CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF 17N FROM 69W-77W INCLUDING JAMAICA. STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR AT ALL LEVELS ARE W OF A LINE FROM CUBA NEAR 20N77W TO HONDURAS NEAR 16N85W LEAVING THAT AREA WITH ONLY SCATTERED COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS. THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN IS DOMINATED BY A BROAD UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED ALONG THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 7N56W AND EXTENDS NW ALONG 11N60W THEN N TO 22N60W. THIS CONTINUES TO PUMP TROPICAL MOISTURE ACROSS THE E CARIBBEAN WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. ATLANTIC... BROAD UPPER TROUGH THAT COVERS THE FAR E US AND THE E GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS OVER THE W ATLC TO 58W WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ENTERING THE AREA NEAR 32N56W ALONG 26N62W TO 24N66W WHERE IT CONTINUES AS A SURFACE TROUGH TO JUST N OF HAITI NEAR 20N73W. OVERCAST CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED RAIN/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 120/150 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT/TROUGH TO OVER HISPANIOLA AND E CUBA. IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT...STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR AT ALL LEVELS DOMINATE THE AREA WITH ONLY BROKEN COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS AND A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED NEAR 34N72W COVERING THE W ATLC W OF THE ABOVE FRONT AND INTO THE E GULF OF MEXICO. BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COVERS THE E ATLC WITH THE AXIS EXTENDING THROUGH 31N15W SW ALONG 24N30W INTO THE TROPICS TO NEAR 16N42W. LARGE SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE E ATLC EXTENDING FROM A 1042 MB HIGH WELL N OF THE AZORES THROUGH 32N37W TO 13N48W. THE TROPICAL ATLC IS DOMINATED BY A BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE CARIBBEAN AND SECOND E/W RIDGE ANCHORED INLAND OVER AFRICA. $$ WALLACE