000
AXNT20 KNHC 191045
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT MON MAR 19 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN 
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE 
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION 
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS... 
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1045 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N10W 4N20W 2N40W 1N50W.  SCATTERED 
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF W 
AFRICA FROM EQ-7N BETWEEN 8W-14W.  SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION 
IS FROM 3N-5N BETWEEN 19W-23W...AND FROM 2N-5N BETWEEN 25W-34W.  
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE FROM 1N-3N BETWEEN 40W-46W.   

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A 1030 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER E NORTH CAROLINA.  15-20 KT E TO 
SE RETURN FLOW DOMINATES THE ENTIRE GULF OF MEXICO.  NIGHT 
CHANNEL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER OVER THE 
GULF.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS... WLY ZONAL FLOW COVERS THE 
ENTIRE GULF.  AN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AND BROKEN HIGH 
CLOUDS IS OVER TEXAS AND THE NW GULF OF MEXICO N OF 24N AND W OF 
94W.  THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF HAS STRONG SUBSIDENCE.  EXPECT 
LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS OTHER THAN SURFACE 
TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY WARMING.    
 
CARIBBEAN...
THE TAIL END OF A FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDS TO HISPANIOLA NEAR 
19N71W.  SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER HISPANIOLA.  SCATTERED 
SHOWERS ARE ALSO INLAND OVER CENTRAL AMERICA...ESPECIALLY OVER 
HIGHER ELEVATIONS...FROM COSTA RICA TO BELIZE MOVING W WITH THE 
TRADES.  ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE LEEWARD AND WINDWARD 
ISLANDS E OF 67W ALSO MOVING W WITH THE TRADES.  IN THE UPPER 
LEVELS... WLY FLOW IS OVER CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE W CARIBBEAN W 
OF 80W.  A RIDGE IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH 
RIDGE AXIS ALONG 62W.  STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN 
SEA EXCEPT OVER HISPANIOLA AND NRN SOUTH AMERICA.  EXPECT THE 
FRONTAL TROUGH TO ADVECT OUT OF THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA OVER 
THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH TRADEWIND SHOWERS TO CONTINUE.  THE UPPER 
LEVEL RIDGE WILL ALSO MOVE E INTO THE ATLANTIC DURING THE NEXT 
24 HOURS LEAVING WLY ZONAL FLOW OVER THE ENTIRE SEA.     
 
ATLANTIC...
THE 1030 MB HIGH OVER E NORTH CAROLINA IS PRODUCING NELY SURFACE 
FLOW OVER THE W ATLANTIC W OF 70W WITH BANDS OF BROKEN COLD AIR 
STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS.  A STATIONARY FRONT IS FURTHER E FROM  
31N57W TO HISPANIOLA NEAR 19N71W.  SCATTERED SHOWERS AND 
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE 
FRONT.  A VERY STRONG 1043 MB SURFACE HIGH IS CENTERED N OF THE 
AZORES ISLANDS NEAR 44N31W.  A RELATIVELY STRONG PRESSURE 
GRADIENT IS FROM 10N-30N BETWEEN 20W-60W PRODUCING STRONGER THAN 
NORMAL NE TO E SURFACE FLOW WITH BROKEN LOW CLOUDS.  IN THE 
UPPER LEVELS... THE BASE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE W 
ATLANTIC N OF 25N BETWEEN 60W-80W.  A RIDGE IS OVER THE CENTRAL 
ATLANTIC BETWEEN 50W-60W.  A LARGE TROUGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC 
N OF 10N AND E OF 50W.  EXPECT THE STATIONARY FRONT TO REMAIN IN 
PLACE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  ALSO EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE IN THE 
UPPER LEVELS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.       

$$
FORMOSA