000 AXNT20 KNHC 161726 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT FRI MAR 16 2007 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS... WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N11W 2N22W CROSSING THE EQUATOR AT 32W AND INTO NE BRAZIL NEAR 3S42W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM N OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 14W-22W AND N OF 3N E OF 6W. SCATTERED MODERATE IS WITHIN 150 NM N OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 25W-39W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO AND EXTREME WESTERN ATLANTIC... A PRONOUNCED SHORTWAVE TROUGH STRETCHES FROM THE EASTERN U.S. ACROSS THE BAHAMAS AND INTO THE CARIB. A RELATED SFC TROUGH EXTENDS FROM NE FLORIDA TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. UPPER DIFFLUENCE E OF THE SHORTWAVE AXIS ALONG WITH LOW-LEVEL LIFT/MOIST INFLOW IS GENERATING SHOWERS AND TSTMS WITHIN 30-60 NM OF A LINE EXTENDING FROM 32N78W ACROSS DAYTONA BEACH TO JUST S OF TAMPA TO 25N86W. A FEW OTHER CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE AHEAD OF THE MAIN LINE...ALL OF THESE ARE PUSHING TO THE SE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT IS DRAPED ACROSS THE NRN GULF COAST. ELSEWHERE IN THE GULF...QUIET WEATHER IS THE RULE UNDER A FAIR AMOUNT OF DRY STABLE AIR IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS. THE FRONT IN THE NRN GULF IS ANTICIPATED TO PUSH SE AND MERGE WITH THE TROUGH ACROSS FLORIDA TONIGHT AND INTO THE ATLC BY SAT MORNING. IT WILL THEN PUSH THRU THE BAHAMAS BY LATE SAT/EARLY SUN. BEHIND THE FRONT...HIGH PRES WILL SETTLE IN SUPPLYING COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER. CARIBBEAN... BROAD MID AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING NOW COVERS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND WRN PORTIONS WHILE THE WRN PERIPHERY OF THE BROAD RIDGE IS HANGING ON ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES. UPPER DIFFLUENCE...ALONG AND TO THE E OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS... ALONG WITH MOIST S-SELY LOW-LEVEL FLOW IS PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVER CENTRAL/WRN CUBA AND THE COASTAL WATERS FROM 21N-23N BETWEEN 78W-82W AS INDICATED BY DOPPLER RADAR FROM CUBA. THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION IS FREE OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY SUPPRESSED BY MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENT FLOW. THE DRIEST AIR ALOFT IS JUST TO THE W OF THE TROUGH AXIS OVER THE NW CARIB. THE TAIL END OF A WEAKENING STUBBORN SFC TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE VIRGIN ISLANDS. THE ASSOCIATED SHALLOW CLOUD COVER IS MUCH THINNER THAN PREVIOUS DAYS BUT THERE STILL IS SCATTERED PATCHES ALONG THE TROUGH PUSHING W TOWARD PUERTO RICO...LIKELY PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS. TRADE WINDS HAVE SLACKEN IN THE WRN CARIB AS LOW PRES IS LOCATED N OF THE AREA BUT REMAIN MODERATE TO FRESH ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND ERN PARTS. LOOKING AHEAD...A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO THE REGION TONIGHT INCREASING THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AS IT PROGRESSES EWD AND WEAKENS. DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER WEATHER WILL FOLLOW ADVECTED BY MODERATE TO STRONG NLY WINDS. WESTERN AND CENTRAL ATLANTIC... THE MAIN FEATURE IS A SLOW MOVING VERTICALLY STACKED LOW N OF THE AREA NEAR 38N49W. A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE REGION NEAR 32N45W AND EXTENDS TO 25N49W THEN CONTINUES AS A SFC TROUGH TO THE VIRGIN ISLANDS. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. ELSEWHERE ZONAL FLOW ALOFT AND SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS IS THE THEME IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS. AT THE SFC...A 1025 MB HIGH IS LOCATED JUST E OF BERMUDA. PATCHY LOW CLOUDS ARE BEING STEERED ACROSS THE REGION BY MODERATE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW. OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...A STRONG UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE REGION BRINGING A GOOD CHANCE OF ORGANIZED PRECIP FOR A PORTION OF THE AREA THIS WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. EASTERN ATLANTIC... THIS PART OF THE ATLC...E OF 40W...REMAINS QUIET WITH STRONG RIDGING BOTH AT THE SFC AND ALOFT DOMINATING THE PATTERN. THE UPPER AXIS IS ALIGNED FAIRLY N-S ALONG 33W/34W. THERE ARE SOME HIGH CLOUDS...DEBRIS MOISTURE FROM THE COLD FRONT IN THE CENTRAL ATLC...STREAMING ACROSS THE RIDGE AXIS BUT MUCH OF THE AREA IS VOID OF PRECIP. THE MOST STABLE CONDITIONS ALOFT ARE CONFINED TO THE ERN MOST PORTION E OF 27N FROM 12N-25N...WHICH INCLUDES THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS...AS UPPER CONFLUENCE IS QUITE STRONG BETWEEN THE RIDGE...A SHARPING TROUGH OVER THE WRN MEDITERRANEAN AND EXTREME E ATLC AND A SUBTROPICAL JET OVER AFRICA. THE SFC RIDGE IS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF MODERATE TO STRONG WINDS ACROSS THE REGION. THIS RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT SWD TIGHTENING THE GRAD WHICH WILL INCREASE THE WINDS FURTHER ESPECIALLY N OF 22N LATE THIS WEEKEND. $$ CANGIALOSI/CASTILLO