000 AXNT20 KNHC 120524 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT MON MAR 12 2007 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS... WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0345 UTC. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N12W 5N21W 2N35W ACROSS THE EQUATOR NEAR 42W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 120 NM OF THE AXIS FROM 17W-45W AND WITHIN 60/75 NM OF 4N FROM 7W-11W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE GULF WITH THE AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL TO LOUISIANA. THIS IS ADVECTING UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS MEXICO OVER THE W GULF THUS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS S OF 25N W OF 95W. MODERATE/ STRONG EASTERLY SURFACE WINDS ARE BANKING LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ALONG THE COAST OF TEXAS. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM THE NW ATLC INLAND ACROSS THE N GULF COAST STATES WITH A SURFACE RIDGE OVERRUNNING THE FRONT OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO TO THE NW CARIBBEAN AND INTO THE W ATLC. OTHER THAN A BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF REMAINS CLOUD AND SHOWER FREE. A DEEP LAYERED LOW/TROUGH AND THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY CURRENTLY OVER THE W TEXAS IS NOT EXPECTED TO MAKE IT INTO THE GULF BUT REMAIN NEAR STATIONARY OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS THEN MOVE EASTWARD OVER THE N GULF COAST STATES. CARIBBEAN... BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN EXTENDING FROM OVER VENEZUELA THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. MODERATE/STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND VERY DRY AIR AT ALL LEVELS IS LEAVING THE CARIBBEAN MOSTLY CLOUD FREE WITH VIRTUALLY NO SHOWERS. THE EXCEPTION IS OVER THE HISPANIOLA AND THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL WATERS WHERE A REMNANT FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE W ATLC EXTENDS A SURFACE TROUGH TO OVER HISPANIOLA GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. THIS SURFACE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED WEATHER WILL MOVER OVER PUERTO RICO OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. MODERATE/STRONG EASTERLY TRADE WINDS CONTINUE ACROSS THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN AND WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE FIRST OF THE WEEK. ATLANTIC... DEEP LAYERED TROUGH COVERS THE W ATLC FROM 55W-80W WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXTENDING JUST INTO THE AREA ALONG 32N61W TO 27N63W THEN CONTINUING AS A SURFACE TROUGH TO OVER HISPANIOLA. SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE N OF 27N FROM 53W-61W WITH BROKEN/OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 75 NM E OF THE SURFACE TROUGH. MODERATE/STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND VERY DRY AIR AT ALL LEVELS IS LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC CLOUD AND SHOWER FREE. A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH OVER THE NE ATLC EXTENDS INTO THE REGION N OF 28N FROM 20W-35W WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXTENDING TO THE AREA NEAR 32N31W. BROAD SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE CENTRAL AND E ATLC N OF 15N E OF 60W ANCHORED BY A 1038 MB HIGH WNW OF THE AZORES. THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC IS UNDER RATHER BENIGN UPPER LEVEL FEATURES AS WELL AS MODERATE/ STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND VERY DRY AIR AT ALL LEVELS. ALL THIS IS KEEPING THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC QUIET TONIGHT. $$ WALLACE