000 AXNT20 KNHC 102350 RRA TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 PM EST SAT MAR 10 2007 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS... WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N12W 2N30W EQ40W AND INTO NE BRAZIL NEAR 2S50W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 2S-4N WEST OF 30W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER NE BRAZIL. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... WEAK SFC HIGH PRES RIDGING CONTINUES TO DOMINATE MUCH OF THE GULF...WHILE A VERY WEAK SFC TROUGH REMAINS ALONG 88W FROM 24N-29N. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS ARE E OF THE TROUGH AXIS OVER THE NE QUADRANT OF THE GULF. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... STRONG ZONAL FLOW DOMINATES MUCH OF THE BASIN BETWEEN RIDGING EXTENDING N FROM NICARAGUA AND A SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSHING THROUGH THE ERN US. THESE WINDS ARE ADVECTING ABUNDANT UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE/HIGH CLOUDS FROM THE EPAC ACROSS CENTRAL MEXICO INTO THE GULF MAINLY S OF 25N. THE WEAK TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE AS STRONG HIGH PRES BUILDS N OF THE REGION DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. ELY WINDS ON THE S SIDE OF THE HIGH WILL SLIGHTLY INCREASE ON SUN AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. CARIBBEAN... QUIET WEATHER PERSISTS ACROSS MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA THIS EVENING WITH PLENTY OF DRY STABLE AIR ALOFT AND MODERATE TRADEWINDS IN PLACE. UPPER RIDGING GENERALLY DOMINATES THE REGION AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH HAS NOW PULLED E INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC. FAIR WEATHER AND ISOLATED TRADE WIND SHOWERS ARE SEEN ACROSS THE AREA. VIS SAT IMAGERY SHOWS TYPICAL STREAMERS OR CLOUD LINES THAT HAVE FORMED DOWNSTREAM OF THE LESSER ANTILLES AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS. CLUSTERS OF MODERATE CONVECTION ARE NOTED ALONG THE ATLC COASTAL WATERS OF COSTA RICA AND W PANAMA. A DIFFLUENT PATTERN ALOFT IS ENHANCING THIS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. TRANQUIL WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH CONDITIONS DOMINATED BY MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS. WESTERN ATLANTIC... MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE REGION. CLEAR UPPER DIFFLUENT FLOW IS SUPPORTING THIS CONVECTION. THIS UNSETTLED WEATHER IS ASSOCIATED WITH A 1012 MB SFC LOW LOCATED NEAR 26N72W...A TROUGH THAT EXTENDS S FROM THE LOW TO THE E BAHAMAS AND A FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT GOES ENE FROM THE SURFACE LOW TO BEYOND 30N50W. SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS A COUPLE OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERS IN THE AREA E OF THE BAHAMAS... BUT THEY SHOULD MERGE IN THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS WITH THE MAIN LOW PRES MOVING NE ACROSS THE OCEAN AND INTENSIFYING INTO A STRONG EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE. THE PRESSURE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE SFC HIGH PRES N OF THE AREA AND THE LOW PRES LOCATED E OF THE BAHAMAS IS PRODUCING GALE FORCE WINDS OF 30 TO 40 KT IN THE NE QUADRANT OF THE LOW. EASTERN ATLANTIC... STRONG HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE SFC PATTERN ACROSS THE ATLC E OF 45W. THIS HIGH IS PRODUCING MODERATE TO STRONG TRADE WINDS AND FAIR WEATHER ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF THE AREA. IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS...STRONG RIDGING ALSO DOMINATES WITH A HIGH CENTER NEAR 20N30W. DRY ANS STABLE AIR ALOFT RESULTING IN STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS KEEPING THE AREA MAINLY SHOWERS FREE. THE TRADE WINDS WILL RELAX SLIGHTLY THROUGH EARLY TOMORROW AS HIGH PRES MOVES NE. HOWEVER THEY ARE SET TO PICK UP AGAIN FROM W TO E LATER SUN AND INTO NEXT WEEK AS STRONG HIGH PRES REBUILDS E ACROSS THE ATLC OCEAN. $$ GR