000 AXNT20 KNHC 072345 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 PM EST WED MAR 07 2007 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS... WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N10W 5N20W 1N30W CROSSING THE EQUATOR AT 40W INTO NE BRAZIL NEAR 1S48W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 3N-5N E OF 20W...AND WITHIN 120-140 NM N OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 40W-47W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE AXIS BETWEEN 32W-35W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER NE BRAZIL. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AT 21Z...A 1023 MB SFC HIGH LOCATED OVER SE LOUISIANA EXTENDS A RIDGE OVER THE ENTIRE GULF AND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. THIS FEATURE IS PRODUCING FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS ACROSS THE AREA WITH SUBSIDING SEAS. LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE SEEN OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND S MEXICO. IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS...THE FLOW IS MAINLY FROM THE WNW AROUND A RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE GULF FROM MEXICO. A BAND OF HIGH CLOUDS IS CROSSING CENTRAL MEXICO AND THE FAR W GULF...BUT OVERALL FAIRLY DRY UPPER AIR DOMINATES. OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...WEAK RIDGING WILL PERSIST ALONG THE NRN GULF COAST KEEPING WINDS LIGHT TO MODERATE THROUGH SAT. SE WINDS WILL INCREASE SAT NIGHT AND SUN AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT THAT IS FORECAST BY THE COMPUTER MODELS TO ENTER THE GULF ON MON. CARIBBEAN... THE TAIL END OF AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS GENERATING BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW/MID CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS OVER E CUBA AND THE BAHAMAS. A WEAK 1016 MB LOW IS IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS WITH A SFC TROUGH WHICH RUNS FROM 18N85W TO 14N86W. LOW LEVEL CLOUD MOTION SUGGESTS A WEAK CYCLONIC TURNING OVER THE AREA. THERE ARE SCATTERED SHOWERS EMBEDDED IN THE ASSOCIATED BROKEN LOW TO MID CLOUD DECK SEEN ALONG COASTAL HONDURAS AND BELIZE...AND CARIB WATERS FROM 15N-21N BETWEEN 82W-87W. THE GFS MODEL INDICATES THAT THIS WEAK AREA OF LOW PRES WILL DRIFT SLOWLY W OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...WITH SHOWERS LINGERING BETWEEN HONDURAS...BELIZE...AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. TYPICAL FRAGMENTS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE DRIVEN BY THE TRADE WINDS ARE MOVING ACROSS PUERTO RICO...HISPANIOLA AND JAMAICA. ELSEWHERE MODERATE TRADES AND FAIR WEATHER ARE DOMINATING. ALOFT...THE FLOW IS RATHER ZONAL WITH A LARGE AMOUNT OF DRY STABLE AIR...ESPECIALLY E OF 78W. WESTERN ATLANTIC... DEEP LAYER TROUGHING COVERS THE MAJORITY OF THE ATLC W OF 50W EXTENDING SWD FROM A LARGE POLAR LOW. TWO COLD FRONTS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH. ONE OF THEM ENTERS THE AREA NEAR 31N50W AS A STATIONARY FRONT AND EXTENDS SW TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS. THE TAIL END OF THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM IS PRODUCING BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED SHOWERS OVER THE BAHAMAS AND E CUBA. THIS FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE NWD AS A WEAK LOW TRIES TO DEVELOP IN THE BAHAMAS LATE THU/FRI. THE SECONDARY AND WEAKER OF THE FRONTS EXTENDS WSW FROM 31N52W TO 27N70W THEN NW TO 29N79W. A THIN ROPE CLOUD HAS BEEN ASSOCIATED WITH THIS BOUNDARY BUT IS BECOMING RATHER RAGGED.THIS FRONT WILL DISSIPATE TONIGHT. EASTERN ATLANTIC... A 1034 MB HIGH PRES SYSTEM LOCATED MIDWAY BETWEEN THE AZORES AND THE MADEIRA ISLANDS IS DOMINATING THE SFC PATTERN ACROSS THE ATLC E OF 45W. THIS HIGH IS PRODUCING MODERATE TO STRONG TRADE WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA BUT MAINLY E OF 30W TO THE W COAST OF AFRICA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... A FAIRLY VIGOROUS LOW IS LOCATED NEAR 27N38W. THE DIFFLUENT PATTERN E OF THE UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED TROUGHING IS GENERATING A FAIR AMOUNT OF MOISTURE FROM 10N TO BEYOND 30N BETWEEN 24-37W. MODELS SHOW THE UPPER LOW MOVING NWD AND OPENING INTO A TROUGH THROUGH TOMORROW. THIS WILL LIKELY REDUCE THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION AS AN UPPER RIDGE ESTABLISHES OVER THE FAR E ATLC. $$ GR