000 AXNT20 KNHC 062310 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 PM EST TUE MAR 06 2007 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS... WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2245 UTC. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N10W 5N21W CROSSING THE EQUATOR NEAR 35W TO SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 1S47W. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM ALONG THE COAST OF AFRICA BETWEEN 4W-10W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... BROAD DEEP LAYERED TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE INTO THE NW ATLC COVERING THE E GULF E OF 87W LEAVING THE ENTIRE GULF WITH W TO NW UPPER FLOW. COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS COVER THE SW GULF S OF 26N W OF 85W. DRY AIR/STRONG SUBSIDENCE AGAIN REIGNS ACROSS THE GULF SUPPRESSING ANY SIGNIFICANT SHOWER ACTIVITY. SOME UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS BEING ADVECTED ACROSS N MEXICO AND TEXAS ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES BUT NOT ENOUGH TO PRODUCE ANY SHOWERS OR CLOUDS. HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE GULF INTO THE W ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1030 MB HIGH OVER CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI. MODERATE N TO NE SURFACE WINDS OVER THE SE GULF WHILE THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF IS UNDER LIGHT N TO NE WINDS. CARIBBEAN... THE DEEP LAYERED TROUGH OVER THE W ATLC DIPS INTO THE FAR NW CARIBBEAN WITH A RAPIDLY DETERIORATING SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING ACROSS E CUBA NEAR 21N77W TO NEAR 16N84W. PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE ATLC AND LOWER PRESSURE OVER THE TROPICS CONTINUES TO GENERATE STRONG EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. CONFLUENT FLOW AND THE REMNANT FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAINTAINS BROKEN/OVERCAST LOW/MID CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN W OF A LINE FROM THE E TIP OF CUBA TO THE NE TIP OF HONDURAS INCLUDING ALL OF JAMAICA. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT EXTENDED ACROSS THE TROPICS INTO THE CARIBBEAN YESTERDAY HAS RETREATED EASTWARD AND ONLY COVERS THE FAR E CARIBBEAN AND THE LESSER ANTILLES LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA WESTERLY UPPER FLOW. VERY STRONG SUBSIDENCE/DRY AIR ESPECIALLY E OF 80W CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THAT AREA. ATLANTIC... DEEP LAYERED TROUGH THAT COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS INTO THE W ATLC W OF 65W WITH THE PRIMARY QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING INTO THE REGION ALONG 32N53W SW TO ACROSS THE BAHAMA ISLANDS TO E CUBA NEAR 21N77W WHILE A SECONDARY PUSH IS AGAIN MOVING S FROM THE NW ATLC AS A COLD FRONT EXTENDING OVER BERMUDA TO 31N74W BUT IS RAPIDLY DETERIORATING. A BANK OF DENSE CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS IS WITHIN 150/180 NM W OF THE STATIONARY FRONT WITH COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS W OF THERE TO 78W. UPPER RIDGE OVER THE W/CENTRAL ATLC HAS BECOME NARROW AS THE UPPER LOW FROM THE TROPICS BEGINS TO MOVE NORTHWARD AND THE UPPER RIDGE OF THE TROPICS HAS BECOME EQUALLY AMPLIFIED. STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND VERY DRY UPPER AIR CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE REGION S OF 30N W OF 45W LIMITING SHOWER ACTIVITY EXCEPT IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS INTO THE TROPICS FROM AN UPPER LOW NEAR 16N43W SW ALONG 19N47W TO OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES NEAR 13N61W. VERY DRY AIR IS OVER THE W TROPICAL ATLC FROM 10N-16N BETWEEN 50W-65W SEVERELY LIMITING CLOUDS AND THUS SHOWERS. THE AMPLIFIED UPPER RIDGE OVER THE E TROPICAL ATLC REMAINS E OF THE UPPER TROUGH ABOVE WITH A PEAK NEAR 27N31W. A SURFACE RIDGE REMAINS ANCHORED OVER THE E/CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDING BY A 1032 MB S OF THE AZORES NEAR 33N28W. $$ WALLACE