000 AXNT20 KNHC 021127 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 AM EST FRI MAR 02 2007 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA... CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA... NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY... METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1115 UTC. ...THE ITCZ... THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N10W 5N20W 1N30W CROSSING THE EQUATOR AT 40W...INTO NE BRAZIL NEAR 3S45W. WIDELY SCATTRED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 100-120 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS WEST OF 2OW. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... A FRONTAL SYSTEM IS MOVING SLOWLY ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO EARLY THIS MORNING. AT 09Z...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE SW TO THE CENTRAL GULF NEAR 25N91W WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY THROUGH THE SW PORTION OF THE GULF. A LINE OF STRONG SHOWERS/TSTMS IS JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT AFFECTING SE GEORGIA AND NORTHERN FLORIDA. A FEW CELLS ARE ALSO MOVING NE THROUGH THE FAR NE GULF...N OF 28N BETWEEN 86W AND THE W COAST OF FLORIDA. NLY WINDS 15-25 KT AND DEWPOINTS DROPPING INTO THE 40S AND 50S ARE SEEN BEHIND THE FRONT WHILE SLY WINDS GENERALLY 15-25 KT AND DEWPOINTS IN THE 70S ARE FOUND AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE FRONT IS ASSOCIATED WITH A DEEP LAYERED LOW SPINNING OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST. THIS LOW WILL MOVE NEWD. AN UPPER RIDGE EXPANDS OVER S MEXICO AND THE GULF FROM AN UPPER HIGH LOCATED JUST SOUTH OF ACAPULCO IN THE EPAC. W TO NW UPPER LEVELS WINDS ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE ARE ADVECTING A BAND OF UPPER MOISTURE THROUGH THE GULF MAINLY N OF 23N AND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA INTO THE W ATLC. DRY AIR ALOFT IS OBSERVED OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE WHERE A 1005 MB SFC LOW IS . THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE TO A PSN BETWEEN NORTH CENTRAL FLORIDA AND THE BAY OF CAMPECHE DURING THE MORNING HOURS THEN BEGIN TO STALL FRI NIGHT THROUGH SAT NIGHT. STRONG HIGH PRES WILL INVADE THE GULF DURING THE WEEKEND BRINGING AN INCREASE IN WINDS AND SEAS...AND COLD TEMPERATURES. THIS HIGH WILL ALSO PUSH THE COLD FRONT ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA ON SUNDAY. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... MODERATE TO STRONG TRADE WINDS CONTINUE TO BLOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE BASIN...AS SFC HIGH PRES N OF THE AREA INTERACTS WITH LOWER PRESSURE NEAR COLOMBIA. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE JUST OFF THE COLOMBIAN COAST WHERE NEAR GALE CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH SUN. SFC WINDS VEER TO THE SE IN THE NW CARIBBEAN IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE GULF. TRADE WIND SHOWERS CHARACTERIZED BY THEIR SHORT DURATION AND LIGHT INTENSITY ARE AROUND IN THE E CARIBBEAN. SOME OF THEM ARE CURRENTLY MOVING OVER PUERTO RICO AND DOMINICAN REPUBLIC GENERATING LIGHT RAIN. SOME HIGH CLOUDS ARE MOVING SE ACROSS CUBA AND THE NW CARIBBEAN. ALOFT...VERY DRY AND STABLE AIR RESULTING IN STRONG SUBSIDENCE DOMINATES THE ENTIRE SEA WITH THE DRIEST AIR JUST OFFSHORE THE NICARAGUA/COSTA RICA BORDER. A RIDGE/TROUGH/RIDGE PATTERN COVERS THE AREA. THE UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE LEEWARD ISLANDS TO COSTA RICA. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... FAIRLY AMPLIFIED UPPER RIDGE/TROUGH/RIDGE/TROUGH DOMINATES THE FORECAST AREA. THE UPPER RIDGING BUILDING INTO THE WRN ATLC IS SPREADING MOISTURE OVER THE AREA OUT TO 70W. A SHORT WAVE TROUGH AHEAD OF THIS IS ALONG 55W. SWLY WIND FLOW AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH IS HELPING TO SUPPORT THE SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION SEEN ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT ENTERS THE REGION NEAR 30N48W THEN CONTINUES AS A STATIONARY FRONT TO 25N60W AND THEN A TROUGH IS ANALYZED THROUGH TO 22N68W. THE REMAINDER OF THE W AND E-CENTRAL ATLC SFC PATTERN IS DOMINATED BY A 1024 MB HIGH PRES LOCATED N OF BERMUDAS NEAR 35N64W AND A 1027 MB HIGH SITUATED WEST OF THE MADEIRA ISLANDS NEAR 32N22W...WHICH IS PRODUCING MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER AND MODERATE TRADES OF 20 TO 25 KT ACROSS THE OCEAN. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE FOUND E OF 40W TO THE COAST OF AFRICA. THIS FEATURE WILL MOVE NEWD DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS WHILE THE HIGH NW OF BERMUDAS WILL SLIDE ENE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT NOW MOVING SLOWLY ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO. $$ GR