000
AXNT20 KNHC 010546
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST THU MAR 01 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...
CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N.
THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0515 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...
THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N13W 3N25W 2N30W CROSSING 
THE EQUATOR AT 40W...INTO NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL NEAR 2S48W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 1N-4N BETWEEN 7W-15W. 
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 140-160 NM OF AXIS WEST 
OF 20W...INCLUDING THE NE BRAZILIAN COAST. 

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
SLY RETURN FLOW OF 10 TO 20 KT DOMINATES THE ENTIRE GULF. THESE 
WINDS WILL INCREASE TOWARD DAWN IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT 
MOVING OFF THE TX COAST DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE FRONT WILL 
EXTENT FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO NEAR TAMPICO MEXICO FRI 
MORNING. AS OF O300 UTC...A WARM FRONT IS ANALYZED ACROSS SE 
LOUISIANA INTO THE GULF NEAR 27N88W. SAT IMAGERY SHOWS HIGH 
CLOUDS SPREADING SE THROUGH THE AREA N OF 22N WITH DOMINATING 
UPPER NW FLOW AROUND A RIDGE THAT COVERS THE REGION AND THE 
FLORIDA PENINSULA. DRY AIR ALOFT IS OBSERVED OVER THE BAY OF 
CAMPECHE.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
MODERATE TO STRONG TRADE WINDS ARE BLOWING ACROSS MUCH OF THE 
AREA...WITH WINDS APPROACHING GALE FORCE AT TIMES JUST OFF THE 
COLOMBIAN COAST. A BIT LIGHTER SE FLOW IS SEEN IN THE NW 
CARIBBEAN...AROUND THE SW PORTION OF ATLC HIGH PRES LOCATED N OF 
THE AREA. THE TRADES ARE ADVECTING TYPICAL PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL 
MOISTURE WWD...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE TROPICAL NORTH ATLC AND 
THE E CARIBBEAN. HOWEVER...VERY LITTLE CLOUD COVER IS SEEN OVER 
THE CENTRAL CARIB WATERS WHERE THE TRADES ARE STRONGEST.  
ALOFT...VERY DRY AND STABLE AIR DOMINATES YET AGAIN WHICH HAS 
BEEN THE STORY FOR MUCH OF THE WINTER. THIS DRY AIR IS ROTATING 
AROUND A MID TO UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING SW BETWEEN CUBA AND 
CENTRAL AMERICA...AND RIDGING OVER THE ERN CARIB. SOME HIGH 
CLOUDS ARE SPREADING OVER W CUBA FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO. A 1003 
MB SFC LOW IS OVER N COLOMBIA. THIS LOW IS HELPING TO TIGHTEN 
THE PRES GRADIENT OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN.  

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE AREA NEAR 31N55W THEN CONTINUES WSW TO 
THE N BAHAMAS NEAR 26N76W WHERE IT BECOMES A DISSIPATING COLD 
FRONT NEAR PALM BEACH.  A SFC TROUGH LIES WITHIN AROUND 120 NM 
SE OF THE FRONT. MULTILAYERED CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED SHOWERS AND 
SCATTERED TSTMS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT/TROUGH. A SHARP 
UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EXTENDING S THROUGH THE WRN ATLC AND 
THE E BAHAMAS. THIS FEATURE IS ENHANCING THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY 
ALONG THE SFC TROUGH MENTIONED ABOVE. THE REMAINDER OF THE E AND 
CENTRAL ATLC SFC PATTERN IS DOMINATED BY THE 1029 MB HIGH 
LOCATED WEST OF THE MADEIRA ISLANDS NEAR 32N25W...WHICH IS 
PRODUCING ABUNDANT FAIR WEATHER AND MODERATE TRADES OF 20 TO 25 
KT ACROSS THE REGION. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE FOUND E OF 40W TO 
THE COAST OF AFRICA. BROAD UPPER RIDGING ALSO DOMINATES MUCH OF 
THE CENTRAL AND E ATLC AS WELL...THOUGH AN UPPER TROUGH 
SURROUNDED BY VERY DRY AIR IS N OF 12N OFF THE COAST OF AFRICA. 

$$
GR